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Home / New Zealand

Claire Trevett: Do polls signal tick-tock for Simon Bridges?

Claire Trevett
By Claire Trevett
Political Editor, NZ Herald·NZ Herald·
9 Jun, 2019 09:33 PM4 mins to read

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Simon Bridges wants heads to roll over Budget hack 'lies'.

The only consistent noise in the aftermath of two very contradictory polls was the tick tock, tick tock on National Party leader Simon Bridges' leadership.

The polls showed starkly different positions for the party he leads.

On Newshub's Reid Research, National fell four points to 37.4 per cent, while in the One News Colmar Brunton poll, it had lifted four points to 44 per cent.

On one poll, Bridges could be sacked. On the other, he is safe as houses.

The only result the same in both polls was Bridges' rankings as preferred Prime Minister.

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He had already been at rock bottom. In both, he was at an even rockier bottom.

Meanwhile, Judith Collins had climbed over him - ascending to rock bottom from rockier bottom.

So National has found itself in the quandary voiced by The Clash: Should he stay, or should he go now?

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One difference in the two polls was the time over which they were taken.

Reid Research began polling on Budget Day, running from May 30 until June 7. The Colmar Brunton poll left some breathing space after the Budget, starting on June 4 and running until June 8.

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National could take some comfort from that, given it makes the One News poll more recent and clear of the immediate hype of the Budget.

But the time differences are not significant enough to be meaningful.

The later timing of the Colmar Brunton poll will worry Labour for it indicates the post-Budget buzz was very short-lived.

It is, however, a very minor worry.

As things stand on both polls, the only real question is not whether Labour would be able to form a government, but whether it would need NZ First to do so.

Bridges' problems are more pressing.

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Three things have kept his challengers at bay: National's party polling, the caucus' dislike of instability, and the absence of a sure-bet of a successor.

Judith Collins is the only one who currently has traction, but it is hardly overwhelming.

And Collins also carries risks.

There are mutterings around Paula Bennett or Mark Mitchell running as the antidote to Collins should she challenge.

Bridges' low personal ratings indicate National voters did not approve of his reaction to the Budget, or the playing out of the Budget "hack" that wasn't.

That is not to say the Budget "leak" was not justifiable. It served a purpose and the fallout may deliver the heads Bridges is calling for.

But voters recognise an over-egged pudding when they are served one.

It not only drowned out the Government and the Budget - it also drowned out the Opposition's response to the Budget.

It is true Labour left National little room to criticise what was in the Budget without looking churlish.

It had spent a lot of money on things people cared about, such as mental health.

But National could have highlighted what was not in the Budget - the economy and tax policy remain National's biggest weapons.

Even if the Colmar Brunton poll is the "most accurate" one, high party polling may not be enough for Bridges given he has now had 18 months in the job.

A lack of coalition partners means every point in the polls counts.

National's caucus will be weighing up whether another leader will help secure even two or three more points.

When they meet tomorrow, National MPs will want to see the results of the party's own polling, by Curia Market Research.

Those results may be critical in determining Bridges' immediate future.

They are delivered to the leadership team every Wednesday, but MPs are not shown the results every week. They are shown them once every sitting period.

This week marks the start of this sitting period. If Bridges does not volunteer those results, MPs will – quite fairly – demand to see them.

National's deputy leader Paula Bennett has publicly rejected the Newshub poll results, which indicates National's internal polling is either in the middle of the two, or closer to Colmar Brunton.

Without a tie-breaker, the polls served up yesterday can be easily dismissed as stuff and nonsense.

Already people are pointing to the failure of the polls to predict outcomes, such as in the recent Australian elections.

But Bridges must surely be wishing the "quiet" voters, to whom Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison credited his own poll-defying win, would start to at least whisper his name.

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