Christmas weather: Heavy rain, severe thunderstorms possible for upper North Island this afternoon

A graphic showing the predicted rain over the top of the North Island for 7pm today. Image / MetService

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are now likely for much of the North Island this afternoon, putting a dampener on Christmas plans.

MetService issued a severe weather watch this morning for most of the central and upper North Island, including Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato, Rotorua and Taupō.

The forecaster said a deeply moist northerly flow meant heavy rain and thunderstorms were likely between 1pm and 10pm today.

“These thunderstorms may become severe bringing localised rainfall rates of 25 to 40 mm per hour,” MetService said.

“Rainfall of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips.”

MetService also have a heat alert for Auckland today.

Auckland Emergency Management said Aucklanders should keep an eye on forecasts today.

It advised people to check drains and gutters to ensure they weren’t blocked and lead to flooding issues during heavy rain.

Usually a haven of sunshine and warm weather, the Bay of Plenty, Auckland and the Waikato are all in for less-than-stellar weather today as MetService predicts high chances of an indoor Christmas dinner.

The clouds rolling in over New Zealand today will keep many parts of the country drenched on Christmas Day with several heavy rain watches in force until early tomorrow morning , and muggy conditions expected to linger.

Indoor feast or beachside BBQ?

Afternoon siesta or games in the backyard?

Here's a look at what to expect from your Christmas weather... pic.twitter.com/z7HGygOFCz

— MetService (@MetService) December 24, 2023

MetService is advising people in the upper North Island they’d “best rely on an indoor option”.

A 17-hour heavy rain watch is in place alongside the severe thunderstorm alert for Bay of Plenty, including Rotorua and Waikato.

MetService said heavy rain could continue in the region overnight Monday and into Boxing Day.

The best parts of New Zealand for Christmas Day

MetService meteorologist Clare O’Connor said that “for those eastern South Island areas though, the northerly winds will drop out in the afternoon and turn [into] light southerlies, which will drop the temperatures slightly – this will lead to cooler overnight temperatures (around 12C), which may be a welcome respite”.

She brings good news for those in the west of the South Island, where the rain looks to ease during the afternoon.

“The chance of a Christmas barbecue is still on the cards there,” she said.

Southland and Otago should also expect a few showers, and Dunedin looks to be wettest in the evening.

Rain or showers throughout the day are forecast for Northland, Auckland, Waikato, the Bay of Plenty and Taranaki.

“Best to rely on the indoor option in those areas,” O’Connor said.

For Wellington and Manawatū-Whanganui, it will be raining in the morning, especially about the ranges, but most of that rain should clear in the afternoon.

MetService Meteorologist Clare O’Connor said the eastern areas of both islands are looking to be the driest and warmest locations tomorrow.

“Napier and Hastings are forecast to reach 31C; Blenheim, Christchurch and Ashburton could all reach 29C,” she said.

More rain, thunderstorms for Boxing Day

Meanwhile, the top half of the North Island could see rain in the morning but is forecast to clear by the afternoon. It will be partly cloudy with isolated showers elsewhere.

The South Island is set to see easing showers in the west and south, but scattered showers developing in the east. Nelson is forecast to see a fine day.