Christmas Covid-19 wave looms, ‘notable increase’ of people contracting virus

Covid cases are expected to peak just before Christmas, as a new wave sees a surge in infections across New Zealand.

Health officials are urging people to get their booster shots, as a “notable increase” of people fall ill with new Covid-19 variants.

Reported Covid cases have increased by 50 per cent recently, while, in a similar time period, the levels of the virus detected in wastewater have more than doubled.

In the latest data for November 6, the seven-day rolling for Covid cases was 896. The rolling average for the week prior was 601 cases.

Canterbury University’s School of Mathematics and Statistics Professor Michael Plank said there had been a “notable increase” in cases over the past couple of weeks as new variants emerged and the population’s immunity waned.

“It’s a steady increase that looks like more of a slow burn. We are still at a significantly lower level than we were last Christmas. Things are increasing but they are increasing from a relatively low base.

“It’s hard to say with certainty when it will peak and with how many cases, but it’s likely to be before Christmas.”

Plank, who is also a researcher for Te Pūnaha Matatini, said the increase in cases was not a “cause for alarm” and there were several things people could do ahead of and during the Christmas season to prepare.

“If you are feeling unwell, stay home, don’t go to that office party. Check that you are up to date with your vaccines. Many people will be eligible for another boost, it’s definitely a really good idea to get that boost going into Christmas.”

Te Whatu Ora director of public health Dr Nick Jones said the recent spike in Covid cases was a reminder for people who are at high risk to ensure they’re up to date with their booster shots and to use antiviral medications early if they are infected with the virus.

“We will continue to see fluctuations in Covid-19 cases and deaths, as it is still present in the community. These waves are likely due to people’s immunity waning, and the introduction of new hybrid variants which increase the community’s susceptibility.”

Jones said Covid-19 was still circulating in our communities and there were measures that could help protect those most vulnerable over the holiday season.

This includes:

• Wearing a face mask in closed, crowded or confined spaces. Free face masks and rapid antigen tests (RATs) are still available from participating pharmacies and RAT collection sites.
• Taking anti-viral medications as soon as you become ill with Covid-19. These are free for those who meet the criteria, including: all people over the age of 65; Māori and Pacific people over the age of 50; people with compromised immune systems and those with long-term health conditions.
• If you are unwell, stay away from friends and family at higher risk of getting very sick, such as babies, older people, immunocompromised and disabled people
• Make sure you are up to date with your Covid-19 booster. The people who are most likely to benefit from another Covid-19 booster include: Māori and Pacific people aged 65 and older; people aged 30 to 74 with significant complex health needs; people aged 16 and older who are severely immunocompromised.