THE Super 15 rugby grand final in Hamilton tonight is the Chiefs' game to lose.
The home advantage and the exhausting travel schedule and injury hassles which have confronted their South African opponents, the Sharks, make the Chiefs warm favourites to win the title for the first time.
And that's not all ... or at least for those who believe that history has a habit of repeating itself. The Sharks have played in three Super Rugby finals and lost the lot.
You could counter that, of course, by pointing to the fact the Chiefs have also lost their only other finals appearance, but one game is hardly the basis for any comparison, is it? Even if the final scoreline was a 61-17 drubbing at the hands of another South African side, the Bulls.
Under the astute direction of Dave Rennie, Tom Coventry and Wayne Smith the Chiefs have clearly been the "finds" of the 2012 competition.
I was one of many who took a lot of convincing they had the depth of talent to go all the way, even going into the last month of play when they were atop the competition table.
In fact, I'm the first to admit to believing they would come off second best to the Crusaders in their semifinal clash at Hamilton last weekend. Even to the point of donning the punting hat and backing the mighty southerners to win by a double-figure margin.
Having watched a couple of replays of that match, I have to say the Chiefs got what they deserved. Sure, the Crusaders were coming back at them strongly at the finish and a long-range penalty attempt by Dan Carter would have made a huge difference had it gone over but, taking the whole match into account, the Chiefs were the better side.
The physical intent shown by the Chiefs on that occasion will need to be repeated tonight.
The aggressiveness of their defence was particularly impressive, with the Crusaders' ball runners often struggling to make it to the advantage line, let alone over it, and with the Sharks containing some gifted attackers more of the same will be required.
In Tanerau Latimer and Liam Messam, the Chiefs have a couple of hard-nosed loosies who relish the close-quarter stuff, defensively and on attack. They are punishing tacklers around the fringes of the scrums and mauls and always prepared to run over, rather than around, their opposition whenever they have ball in hand.
You can safely assume nothing will be more on the minds of Latimer and Messam tonight than keeping star Sharks inside back, Frenchman Frederick Michalak, under lock and key.
Michalak, who was such a key figure when France famously beat the All Blacks in the 2007 World Cup quarter-final, can be a menace, whether at halfback or first-five, if he is allowed the space and time to call the shots - but, conversely, he is apt to make poor judgment calls when placed under constant pressure.
The Sharks no doubt see Michalak as a potential matchwinner, while the Chiefs will probably regard him more as a potential weakness, so whichever way you look at it he seems certain to have a big effect on the end result.
Tactically, the Chiefs' game plan will probably not differ much from that used so effectively against the Crusaders.
They are a side who epitomise the old adage of rugby being a 15-man game, in that they are always prepared to spread the ball wide when the opportunity exists, and it's difficult to imagine them changing anything in that regard for the grand final.
The Chiefs' forwards, as a whole, are still somewhat under-rated, but when push comes to shove they're as rugged and uncompromising as any of this year's Super 15 teams. Those qualities should enable them to at least hold their own in all of the important ball-winning departments.
Remarkably, it is halfback Tawera Kerr-Barlow who has become the trump card for the Chiefs in the backs. I say remarkably because when you have players such as All Blacks Aaron Cruden, Sonny Bill Williams and Lelia Masaga outside him you could easily be forgiven for thinking Kerr-Barlow would be much lower in the pecking order.
As most of the top players wearing the No9 jersey tend to be, Kerr-Barlow is a cheeky individual whose unpredictability is his greatest strength. In essence, he relies on instinct and while some of his decision-making may look questionable, to say the least, he has the happy knack of pulling things off, even against the odds.
Cruden and Williams will, of course, also be major components in the Chiefs' attacking ploys, although it wouldn't surprise if Williams is used more as a decoy than a ball carrier on this occasion.
The Sharks have made no secret of the perceived need for them to keep Williams under wraps and the Chiefs may look to him to break up the visitors' defensive structure more through sheer presence than anything else.
This, then - as stated earlier - is more a game for the Chiefs to lose than for the Sharks to win and it's our pick the locals will be celebrating their first Super rugby success well into the early hours of tomorrow.