Bryce Edwards: Political round-up: November 8

Photo / APN

It wasn't that long ago that the Maori seats were a political backwater - taken for granted election after election by Labour. In 2011 there is a tense three way battle across the country. But commentary on these seats is infrequent and often ill informed, so it is worth surveying the competition.

Up in Te Tai Tokerau it seems Hone Harawira will see off Labour's Kelvin Davis for the second time in six months, although it won't be one of the landslides he enjoyed when he was the sole challenger in 2005 and 2008. Harawira is only too aware that the entire future of his Mana Party rests on the result and isn't taking anything for granted. Waihoroi Shortland for the Maori Party has obviously made a much more aggressive challenge than Solomon Tipene during the by-election but despite a much improved showing it seems he is drawing as many votes from Davis as from Harawira. The rejection of Shortland in favour of Tipene for the by-election was a huge blunder for the Maori Party. Back then he could well have ensured the permanent demise of Harawira and Mana, and so this may prove very costly for the Maori Party in the next few years. According to iPredict, Harawira has an 88% chance of winning.

In Tamaki-Makaurau it appears Pita Sharples is secure with a very handy lead over Labour's Shane Jones and Mana's Kereama Pene - see: TVNZ's Sharples ahead in Tamaki Makarau - poll. Although it appears a no-contest the implications are large. This is Jones' best chance to win a seat. Given his leadership ambitions losing will be a big blow and there are questions as to whether he will stick around with his political future at the mercy of Labour's list selection process. But, this will almost certainly be Pita Sharples' last election. 2011 may be easy to pick now but 2014 looks wide open, especially with Willie Jackson waiting in the background. At the moment, iPredict says Sharples has an 86% chance of winning.

Tariana Turia will easily take Te Tai Hauauru but she has formally announced her retirement before the 2014 election. Again a huge personal vote will mean the Maori Party will have a real battle to retain this seat then. The Maori Party has an 86% likelihood of winning according to iPredict.

In Hauraki-Waikato Labour's Nania Mahuta looks to be safe from both Maori Party and Mana challenges, but again there is doubt about her sticking around for the next election. It's another one to watch in 2014. But in 2011 Labour's chances have recently risen to 89% on iPredict .

The same situation applies in Ikaroa-Rawhiti where Parekura Horomia's huge personal vote will bring it home for Labour. But there were persistent rumours of his unhappiness with Labour over the last few months and even some doubt he would stand in 2011 - see, for example Morgan Godfery's Will Parekura Horomia retire?. He is standing but it is hard to see him still there in 2014. Labour's likelihood of retaining the seat is rated at 86% on iPredict.

Rahui Katene was the surprise victor for the Maori Party in Te Tai Tonga in 2008, especially as she was the second choice after the sudden death of Monte Ohia. It was always going to be a hard seat to hold, especially with Katene on the defensive over the Marine and Coastal Area legislation and the fallout over Hone Harawira's split. Rino Tirikatene should regain it for Labour, assisted by a charismatic late challenge from Mana's Clinton Dearlove. Another Labour-Tirikatene dynasty in the south is far from certain, however. iPredict says that Labour has a 72% chance of taking back the seat.

Waiariki actually looks to be the key battle this year, with Morgan Godfrey calling it the hardest to pick - see: Waiariki: Electorate analysis. Mana's Annette Sykes has clearly established herself as the main challenger to Maori Party MP Te Ururoa Flavell. Her performance on the Native Affairs debate last night will reinforce this. No Waiariki polls have been released yet but, if they show Sykes within striking distance, she has the chance to collapse the Labour candidate Louis Te Kani's support and swing the anti-National vote behind her. According to iPredict, the Maori Party has a 65% chance of retaining the seat against the challenger.

As James Ihaka reports, there is a lot at stake in the Waiariki contest - see: Issues rift turns friend into foe. Given that Sharples and Turia won't be around in 2014 and that Katene is unlikely to hold her seat, the Maori Party desperately needs Flavell to hold on to provide some leadership succession. If he can't, the Maori Party face having to fight all the Maori Seats in 2014 without the huge advantage of having incumbent MPs. Another three years in coalition with National is very unlikely to make the job any easier as Colin James notes in last month's column The Maori Party's hard choice.

With this prospect, along with the uncertain futures of Act and Peter Dunne, National is looking a little short of reliable friends in Parliament over the next few years. A Herald poll is picking up surprising support for National amongst Maori voters but in reality National is reliant on the Maori Party to turn Maori votes into seats for a National led government - see: Mood of the Nation: National picks up Maori support.

A Sykes win in Waiariki would be a huge boost for Mana and would set them a great platform to mount strong challenges across all the Maori seats in 2014, something they were unable to do this election. Even the chance of a win will be a boost for Mana over the next few weeks - their party vote stock on iPredict shot up by nearly 1% in tandem with Sykes' stock after last night's debate. Mana needs to show it can step up from the one-seat-wonder category of Peter Dunne and Jim Anderton. If Sykes can keep the momentum building then they could make the leap this time.

Labour have been talking up their chances of re-taking all of the Maori seats since the Maori Party-Mana split but they would have to be pretty disappointed with the prospects for 2011. They will probably gain one and hold on to two, but are likely to face 2014 with only one incumbent Maori MP. Having largely failed to take their opportunities in 2011 they will have to step it up considerably in 2014 to make any headway.

The Green Party is definitely making significant headway in the election campaign, and National aside, is likely to be the real success story of the year. I take issue with their problematic post-election coalition policy in my weekly Herald column entitled Greens play dangerous game with slippery campaign line. Elsewhere, Gordon Campbell has an excellent opinion piece on the big question of whether or not the Greens should enter a coalition with the National Party, and he points out the pros and cons - see: On some possible options for the Greens. Colin James also writes today about the 'repositioning' of the Greens towards the political centre - see: It's not only National that's a bit rich. Clearly there's a developing consensus amongst political commentators that the Greens have evolved in political character and are suddenly poised to play a more central and moderate role in parliamentary politics - perhaps even from within government.

Today's content

Maori seats

Morgan Godfery (Maui Street): Waiariki: Electorate analysis

Morgan Godfery (Maui Street): Native Affairs Kowhiri 11: Te Tai Hauauru Review

James Ihaka (NZH): Issues rift turns friend into foe

TVNZ: Sharples ahead in Tamaki Makarau - poll

Amelia Romanos (NZH): Poll shows strong lead for Sharples

Tracy Watkins (Stuff): Sharples out in front: poll

Jarrod Booker, Simon Collins and Yvonne Tahana (NZH): Mood of the Nation: National picks up Maori support

Mathew Grocott (Manawatu Standard): Ensure Maori led by own; Turia

Greens

Yvette McCullough (Newstalk ZB): 'We can work with National or Labour' - Greens

Bryce Edwards (NZH): Greens play dangerous game with slippery campaign line

Gordon Campbell (Scoop): On some possible options for the Greens

Colin James (ODT): It's not only National that's a bit rich

Phoebe Fletcher (Tumeke): Greens launch and National's change in tack

No Right Turn: A teal coalition?

Dominique Schwartz (ABC): Oil spill boosts NZ Greens' prospects

Lincoln Tan (NZH): Robyn Malcolm under fire for green campaign

Brian Edwards: What Robyn Malcolm and John Key have in common and why the actor might just best the politician.

John Pagani: Bad idea