OPINION
Another Omicron wave is not only unwelcome news for the public, but also a huge problem for the Government, writes Dr Bryce Edwards for the Democracy Project
The school that one of my kids goes to announced today that they have gone back to compulsory mask-wearing. It's a sign of where things are heading, with a second wave of Omicron surging across the country.
Understandably, this is the news that nobody wanted to hear. However, all the Covid stats are currently heading in the wrong direction, meaning greater restrictions may need to be imposed again to prevent disaster.
It's not only unwelcome news for the public, but also a huge problem for the Government, which is highly allergic to increased Covid restrictions, and especially the idea of shifting the country back into the red traffic light setting. The Prime Minister seems to be doing her best to avoid discussing the Covid situation, but when confronted with questions she has been dismissive of greater restrictions.
So, this all raises the question of whether we are going to let Covid complacency catch us out again in 2022.
The facts about the second wave of Omicron
What do we currently know about the latest surge? Firstly, the number of reported infections is increasing fast. After being around 5000 a day, the weekly rolling average has now hit 8013. And we have now had a few days of hitting the 10,000 threshold.
Covid modeller Professor Michael Plank says we appear to be seeing infection numbers double about every 14 days. He, along with other public health academics, is suggesting that we may soon see a national peak of at least 20,000 daily cases. Others are stating a possible figure of 25,000.
In terms of hospitalisations, the seven-day rolling average has risen from 347 to 454. And today it hit 554. As epidemiologist Michael Baker says, "All the signs point towards a large wave of Covid-19 with an abrupt rise in cases".
Deaths are also up – with an average now of about 15 a day. According to the Our World in Data source, New Zealand has the 6th highest weekly death rate, with only tiny countries faring worse than us.
The problem is that New Zealand is being infected with new and evolving variants of the Omicron virus. And these are more and more transmissible.
At the same time, the public's immunity is waning. The fourth vaccine is currently being rolled out, but isn't expected to occur very quickly or widely. Although the country achieved a high rate of double-vaccination, the rate of triple-vaxxed people is said to be only 73 per cent. What's more the current vaccine appears to be less effective against the new variants.
Meanwhile, mask-wearing is said to be dropping fast, due to "mask fatigue" and complacency. According to the head of Retail New Zealand, Greg Hartford, customer compliance has "dropped off a cliff" with now only a third of shoppers wearing masks.
Increasing demand for action
Increasingly public health experts are calling for more to be done – especially around mask-wearing. For example, yesterday 1News reported: "150 health experts have called for the Government to introduce more restrictions to slow the spread of Covid-19. Recommendations included making masks mandatory in schools over winter, giving people greater access to high-quality masks, and pushing for better ventilation indoors."
Now that the daily infection rate has surpassed 10,000 – which was previously given as a rough threshold for the country being put into the Red setting of the traffic lights system – there are also increasing calls for a re-evaluation of the government rules and settings.
According to University of Auckland senior lecturer in computational evolution Dr David Welch, "Going back to red is something that the Government would be looking at very closely right now, they'd be looking at how the hospitals are coping and what are the projections".
Certainly, if the numbers of infections really do head towards 20,000 a day, there will be expanded calls for the country to go into Red, or for the Orange settings to be adjusted.
The politics of going Red
The decision to bring in greater Covid restrictions is clearly a political one to be made by the Government. And they are likely to be in a better place to judge what needs to be done than health specialists.
Politicians need to balance many different needs. This is well put today in the Herald by news director Lynley Ward, who says: "They've got so many competing interests now. You've got the business lobby and the economic imperative to get the country going as well as the social imperative, which includes getting children back in schools."
That social imperative is acknowledged by many health experts. For example, Ross Lawrenson, a professor of public health at the University of Waikato stated this: "From a public health point of view, it would be nice to make masks compulsory and restrict movement around and try and restrict the spread, not only of Covid but also influenza… But I don't think that practically, society … is up for that."
According to Herald political editor Claire Trevett, the Government's "mantra seems to be ABR: Anything but Red."
Reacting to Ardern's dismissal of going to Red anytime soon, Trevett explains today: "The last thing the Government will want to do is slap the country back into red just as school holidays are about to start – it would infuriate businesses… Nor would it be a great look in the middle of the PM's globe-trotting exercise, pitching the Great Reopening of New Zealand and assuring the word we were open for business. Open for business provided you are seated and separated doesn't have the same ring."
Ardern's wariness about going to Red is backed up by a lot of public voices. For instance, yesterday the broadcaster Kate Hawkesby said: "I think even the most law abiding lockdown fanatic would find it hard to stomach more restrictions coming back, just as we've worked so hard to shrug them off and find some normality. Compliance would be an issue".
This doesn't mean the Government can be complacent, however. Broadcaster Rachel Smalley, says it's time for the Government to start giving us more information about what's going on: "The Government has been criticised for over-communicating at times but the silence at the moment is deafening. The polls will have told Labour that everyone's a bit over Covid, and that's why the PM has distanced herself from the response. And our Director-General Ashley Bloomfield has resigned, so we're a bit at sea and reliant on Ministers – which is fine, but I think we need to hear more from them."
As infection rates rise, New Zealand's Covid response will once again become debated and politicised. And in this regard, former National leader Simon Bridges writes today in the NBR, saying: "let's all remember to have a little humility about what has and hasn't worked. No country has got it entirely right. Not the UK, but not NZ either. We are increasingly working out Covid policies are not just about Covid health, strictly speaking, but have wider health, economic, social, and – ultimately – societal ramifications, short and much longer term. It isn't, as many in our little nation blithely seem to have assumed, a binary, but rather a nuanced and complex set of issues."
Also writing in the NBR today, political editor Brent Edwards warns his commercial readership not to be complacent about where things are heading: "businesses should be prepared for the worst and the possible move to the red light setting if the surge in cases shows no sign of slowing. At that point indoor gatherings are limited to 200, customers must be seated and separated from others, masks must be worn at hospitality venues and all hospitality workers must wear them."
And Brent Edwards rightly concludes: "There is no doubt that people are sick of the virus but the problem is, the virus is not sick of us." Complacency is clearly something that both public and politicians need to be wary of.
Dr Bryce Edwards is political analyst in residence at Victoria University of Wellington. He is the director of the Democracy Project.
Elisabeth Nicholls vanished from a retirement village in Riccarton two weeks ago.