Brash breathing down Clark's neck in latest poll

By KEVIN TAYLOR, political reporter

A new poll shows National leader Don Brash drawing almost level with Prime Minister Helen Clark as preferred Prime Minister as his party consolidates previous gains.

Last night's One News-Colmar Brunton poll put National support down 1 point compared with the last poll in mid-March at 48 per cent, and Labour down 2 to 37 per cent.

Helen Clark's support as preferred Prime Minister was down 3 points to 32 per cent while Dr Brash was up 2 to 31 per cent.

Earlier this month Labour appeared to have regained some of the popularity it lost after Dr Brash's controversial Orewa speech.

A TV3-TNS poll put the parties level on 42 per cent each, and a National Business Review-Phillips Fox poll showed Labour ahead of National, fuelling suggestions Labour's policy u-turns were starting to have some effect.

But the new Colmar Brunton poll shows National locking in its position.

Translated into seats the poll shows National would win 59, Labour 46, Greens 6, New Zealand First 6, United Future 2 and the Progressives 1, assuming the last two win an electorate. Labour would need every small party to govern, and even then it would have only a one-seat majority.

National, however, could cherry-pick the remains of United Future as an untroubling ally, doing away with the need to court the more demanding New Zealand First.

New Zealand First was up 1 to 5 per cent in the poll, the Greens were up 3 to 5 per cent, and Act and United Future were steady on 2 per cent each.

Dr Brash said last night the polls were fluctuating up and down, which he expected to continue, but he was pleased with the result.

He was surprised his personal ratings were so high and confessed to not knowing why.

"I've been doing a lot of speaking around the country ... there was a TV documentary but I would have thought that there were [as many] negative comments about that as there were positive."

A spokesman for Helen Clark said the latest poll, like others, showed people were not so much unhappy with the Government but unsettled by difficult race issues, which were being worked through.

The Government had to find solutions to the issues, and that could be difficult.

Good news for the Government came in expectations on the economy. Optimism about the economic outlook was up 4 points to 37 per cent while pessimism fell a substantial 7 points to 32 per cent.

Approval of the Government's performance fell only 1 point to 43 per cent, while disapproval fell 3 points to 39 per cent.

However, those results have not showed up in party support.

Labour has just finished a round of regional conferences, the last two being in Auckland and Wellington at the weekend, where it was made clear to delegates the party was moving into election campaign mode.

Party president Mike Williams said the poll was a "real wake-up call" to not only the Labour Party but Maori in the Labour Party, referring to the festering foreshore and seabed issue.

He said the message was to "look over the cliff" at what Dr Brash was planning - like abolishing the Maori seats.

Mr Williams said Dr Brash had done Labour a favour.

"It is much easier to motivate a political party when you are behind than when you are in front. That's obvious."

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 per cent.

Party seats

The shape of Parliament from the latest poll:

National: 59 seats

Labour 46

NZ First 6

Greens 6

United Future* 2

Progressives* 1

* Assumes both parties win an electorate