With New Zealand First having difficulty in making up its mind which way to go, political editor Audrey Young provides a summary of the pros and cons for them going either way as they make their decision today.
TEAM BLUE
Pros: • More experienced hands running the economy and thecoalition. • Greater chance to be noticed next to boring Bill English. • Ability to hit the ground running with an already up-and-running govt • A simpler two-way coalition and safe majority. • Greater policy contrasts will make NZ First easier to define.
Cons: • Winston Peters has more potential to clash with newly mandated English. • Associated with a third-term govt whose fortunes will probably wane by the 2020 election. • Might not look like the change NZ First campaigned for. • Competing for the same vote in provincial NZ. • National could change leaders part way through the term, like it did in 1996, upsetting coalition arrangements.
Pros: • Peters complements Jacinda Ardern in gender, age and experience. • Ardern may be more willing to take advice from Peters. • Ardern associated with Helen Clark-era which was good for Peters. • Many more policies in common. • Greater chance to influence new govt.
Cons: • Ardern untested as a leader and Grant Robertson untested in finance role. • NZ First could be overshadowed by three years of Jacindamania. • Battling perception it is a govt of losing parties. • Part of a three-way govt with thinner majority. • Having to work more closely with the Greens.
