Perhaps the most useful and enduring legacy from the John Key years was his practice of announcing the date at the very start of election year.
Not only did this change project a sense of confidence, it allowed everyone in the public service and the political system to better plan and prepare for the year.
The fact that Ardern chose to continue the custom has turned it into something of a constitutional convention. It will be hard for future Prime Ministers to go back to the old ways when as little warning as possible was given in order to gain a political advantage over the Opposition.
Helen Clark and her predecessors all sought to wield this power, to varying degrees of success. Often the Government’s own backbench MPs would not be told of the announcement or would receive a few minutes warning at best.
But that’s nothing compared to our Australian cousins.
Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the 2019 federal election in the middle of a sitting session of the Australian Senate.
Senate proceedings were brought to an abrupt halt and the clearly gobsmacked senators packed up and went home.
And in 1983, Australian prime minister Malcolm Fraser attempted to call an election at the very moment his Labor party opponents were meeting to replace their leader Bill Hayden with Bob Hawke.
Desperate to avoid campaigning against Hawke, Fraser rushed to the Governor General’s residence to seek approval to dissolve parliament before Labor had time to switch leaders.
Turning up unannounced, the prime minister was forced to wait until the Governor General had finished his lunch with the Polish ambassador.
By the time the election was eventually called at 5 o’clock, it was too late. Hawke was now Labor leader and would go on to become prime minister in a landslide victory.
Thankfully, New Zealand has settled on a more mundane process.
While the 2023 election can legally take place any time prior to January 13, 2024, the holiday season essentially rules out any date beyond the end of November.
Next year’s election will also have to contend with the men’s Rugby World Cup in France.
The tournament runs from September 8 right through to the final on October 28, with New Zealand matches scheduled for almost every weekend.
While the All Blacks losing no longer sends the country into a collective depression, it would still take a brave government to schedule an election too close to the final.
A heartbreaking loss on the scale of the 1995 final in South Africa would risk turning grief into anger at the ballot box.
All things considered, the most sensible date for the 2023 election would therefore be Saturday November 25. This provides for a two-week cool-down period between the final and the commencement of early voting.
It also aligns with the date chosen the last time our election year clashed with the Cup. In 2011, John Key settled on November 26, a sensible five weeks after the final.
Of course, all this speculation would be unnecessary if we moved to fixed-term parliaments.
Knowing the date of all future elections would provide certainty not only to those within the political system but to all New Zealanders.
Given the impact, albeit dwindling, of future Rugby World Cups clashing with our elections, fixing the date of our elections to take place on the last Saturday in November makes real sense.
Political nerds will just have to find a new game to occupy their time.
Andrew Kirton was Labour’s General Secretary from 2016-2018. He now works in government relations for transtasman firm Anacta Consulting. He is married to a Labour MP.
