A common theme of the debate was how
tough this year has been on all of us. To riff off the prime minister’s now famous remark about Act leader David Seymour, 2022 has been a prick of a year. Good riddance to it.
With a general election set against continuing economic and geopolitical difficulties, 2023 is shaping up to be one heck of an interesting year in politics.
Given it is the season for making lists, here are nine things to look out for next year:
1. A Cabinet reshuffle
The Prime Minister will reshuffle her Cabinet sometime in the new year. The key question is how far Jacinda Ardern will go. She has two options: simply replace retiring Ministers Poto Williams, Aupito William Sio and David Clark, or go wider and present a renewed and refreshed team.
2. Greater scrutiny
Given that National is ahead in the polls and has a real possibility of forming the next Government, expect to see far greater scrutiny in 2023 on leader Christopher Luxon and National’s polices – or lack of them.
3. A Government fightback
Adversity can sometimes bring out the best in politicians. The Government appears to have realised very late that no one is going to win the 2023 election for them – they have to grab the political bull by the horns themselves. After renewing the Cabinet, expect to see the political secateurs come out to prune away unpopular policies and projects.
4. Monsieur Peters
At 4.4 per cent in the most recent Talbot Mills poll, New Zealand First has a real shot at returning to Parliament. With them having ruled out a coalition with Labour, all eyes are on whether Luxon will in turn rule out Winston Peters and NZ First. That would still leave the option of sitting on the cross benches, offering confidence and supply to a National or Labour-led government in return for support for a number of NZ First policies.
5. Plateauing OCR
What goes up must eventually come down, or at least plateau. At some point in 2023, we hope, the Reserve Bank will be satisfied that inflation is under control. An end to the current run of OCR rises will signal that the Reserve Bank’s programme of tough economic medicine is coming to an end. Unless too much damage is done in the meantime, that could be a real boost for the Government.
6. Conspiracy theorists
Despite almost no Covid-19 restrictions remaining, the conspiracy theorist community doesn’t appear to be going away. Expect to see the mad, bad, and sad attempt to influence and disrupt the election in order to continue to highlight their false claims.
7. An unexpected by-election
Whether through a scandal, ill health or a new job, by-elections are always a possibility – even in an election year. While unlikely, the Gaurav Sharma situation proves that when it comes to politics, you can never let down your guard.
8. Big policy
I was in the room when Prime Minister Helen Clark announced Labour’s zero-interest student loans policy and saw how it tipped the 2005 election on its head. Big, bold policies that are easy to understand can and do shift the electoral fortunes of governments and oppositions alike. Expect to see some big policy plays by the two major parties next year.
9. An October surprise?
Part of US presidential election folklore is the threat of an “October Surprise” – something unexpected that happens in the final weeks of the campaign. With a November election likely here in New Zealand, there is always the chance of our own October Surprise. Whether that’s a political scandal, natural disaster, international event, or something else, who knows?
Wishing you a peaceful and happy summer break.
Andrew Kirton was Labour’s General Secretary from 2016-2018. He now works in government relations for transtasman firm Anacta Consulting. He is married to a Labour MP.
