Pro-Ukraine people shout slogans during a small protest outside the Russian consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. Photo / Francisco Seco, AP, File
OPINION
A year ago today, Russian tanks rolled across the borders into Ukraine. Little by little coverage of this conflict has faded out of our local news cycle.
That’s not surprising.
Ukraine is thousands of kilometers from New Zealand. Few Kiwis visit. We export less than $25 million worth of goods there annually and the latest census records fewer than 2000 Ukrainian-born residents in New Zealand.
Personally, I have never been to Ukraine. I don’t know any Ukrainians. I don’t even know anyone who knows any Ukrainians. In one sense, this conflict is just some other war in some far-flung place, where they don’t speak English and they don’t play rugby. It makes sense for Kiwis to forget it.
We have plenty of cyclones and inflation to fill our headlines, after all.
Yet, while all the above is true, the war in Ukraine has pulled me in. I find myself doom-scrolling social media for updates on the latest advances at Bakhmut on an almost daily basis. I have become an armchair expert on tank design. I laugh aloud at the ridiculous (translated) broadcasts of Russian propagandists like Simeon and Solovyov. I feel sick when I see yet more videos of destroyed Ukrainian apartment blocks and dead Ukrainian civilians.
I cheered when our government sent military trainers to help train Ukrainian artillerymen.
My friends think I’m slightly obsessed this conflict. I suspect, however, I’m not the only New Zealander who is. So why should the war in Ukraine matter to New Zealanders? Why should we pay attention? Why should we commit precious tax dollars to Ukrainian causes when there are so many other urgent needs here at home?
There may be as many answers to these questions are there are New Zealanders who are following these events. For me, surprisingly perhaps, the answer has very little to do with Ukraine and a lot to do with New Zealand.
Frankly, Russia could have invaded Estonia, Latvia, Poland or Japan and I suspect I would feel the same concern. My concern is not solely with Ukraine.
My concern is, in large part, with the implications of this conflict on New Zealand’s approach to national security.
For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, I feel nervous for New Zealand.
The problem for us is that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upends a multitude of global institutions, agreements and conventions that New Zealand has relied on to safeguard our security. The notion of territorial integrity, the importance of the United Nations Charter, the sanctity of international agreements (such as the Budapest Memorandum), and well-worn diplomatic processes for mediating border disputes, all failed to prevent Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russia wanted to replace a neighbouring government they hated, with a more pliant regime. They believed they had the military might to overwhelm the Ukrainian army and so they simply invaded the country. Institutions and agreements be damned.
But, as Russian tanks came crashing through Ukrainian barrier arms, a number of New Zealand’s defence assumptions buckled right along with them.
The international community pulled out all the stops to attempt to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine. Those efforts all failed. That should worry us.
To be blunt (and one must), these international institutions and diplomatic processes were already damaged.
The United States’ invasion of Iraq in 2003 was as unwarranted and destructive of international institutions as Russia’s attack on Ukraine has been. The seductive assumption that international disputes can be resolved by force of arms is frightening, no matter who does the forcing.
With the failure of international institutions to prevent one super-power from invading Iraq, and a second from invading Ukraine, New Zealanders can but wonder whether these institutions have any chance of preventing the third superpower from invading its neighbours.
Russia is a long way from our shores. China is not.
Having failed to prevent the invasion, the best that can be hoped for now is that Russia’s “special military operation” fails dramatically, Russia withdraws its forces and rethinks it approach to international relations.
Following George Bush’s unsanctioned invasion of Iraq, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, if successful, will further erode the trust of small nations that powerful countries can be held to international agreements, UN resolutions or diplomatic processes.
The long-term consequence of this loss of trust should concern New Zealanders. We have invested in these international “guardrails” and run down our military capabilities for decades on the belief there were few threats to our sovereignty, and a strong international rules-based order would protect us if the Australians, for example ever became too demanding.
So, yes, Ukraine is a long way from New Zealand, and we have plenty of immediate issues to occupy us all down here. The war in Ukraine is not an urgent concern for New Zealand, but I suspect many of us sense that it is none-the-less an important concern.
Should Russia prevail in its efforts to strongarm the Ukrainians into submission, New Zealand may need to think again about our faith in the capacity of international institutions to protect us, our decision to mothball our Skyhawk jets and the current level of our military spending.
We may also need to think hard about our casual semi-neutrality that has been a hallmark of our existence for the last 30 years.
Personally, I don’t want to do any of these things. But the outcome of the war in Ukraine may leave us little choice.
On the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is a timely reminder for New Zealanders to consider what will happen if Russia succeeds. The war is a long way away from our shores, but the outcomes of that conflict should matter to us.
Lest we forget.
- Andrew Barney is a lecturer in Management at Massey University Auckland. He is not Ukrainian.
School rankings, property deals, gangs, All Black line-ups, and restaurant reviews.