There's no denying Waikato have been the best Championship side this season, but they will be wary of Otago after losing to them at home in aRanfurly Shield defence just a fortnight ago. That said, Otago weren't near their best last week as they struggled to overcome a mediocre Hawke's Bay side in Dunedin.
It mustn't be forgotten, also, that Waikato's main weapon Sevu Reece was absent from their Ranfurly Shield loss.
Waikato have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games, and five of seven against Championship sides this season. Otago, on the other hand, have covered just four of 11. Waikato should be comfortable victors.
Canterbury's amazing record in the Mitre 10 Cup finals is hard to look past, but it's understandable that Auckland have been installed as favourites given their impressive string of results this season.
The Aucklanders beat Canterbury 34-29 in Christchurch earlier in the season and there are plenty of reasons to think Alama Ieremia's side are capable of doing so again.
Auckland are 4-0 ATS in their last four and have covered five of seven versus Premiership sides while Canterbury are 0-4 ATS in games immediately after covering the line.
When these sides last met in an NPC final in 2015, Canterbury snuck to a 25-23 victory. The bookies think it'll be close again and the signs point in that direction too after Auckland's five point win in round five.
A slow start has become a recent trend for this Auckland side after conceding the first scoring play in their last five games. Four of those plays were tries and when you look at Canterbury's recent record in this market there is plenty of reason to back the red and blacks. They have tallied the first points in their last five games and nine of their last 10.
