What, in their 86th year, do the Oscars actually mean?
Sensible answers could fall anywhere between "diddly-squat" and "the nearest thing we have to an objective measure of quality in commercial cinema". But in a year where two unusually strong front-runners, 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, offer impressive but wildly different accounts of what film can achieve, the question seems especially worth asking. Perhaps it's healthiest to see the Oscars not as the last word on what matters in film, or even the first, but as the industry's annual snapshot of itself at what it believes to be its best - a kind of communal selfie that will hopefully be looked back on with pride, rather than through parted fingers.
Best Picture
"It's time." That two-word slogan has appeared all over the campaign literature for 12 Years a Slave, reminding voters that a Best Picture win for Steve McQueen's slave-trade drama would echo far beyond the photocalls and speeches. It's a sharp tactic, but not a dishonest one: McQueen's film just feels too important, both artistically and historically, for the top prize to go anywhere else.
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Should win: 12 Years a Slave
