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Home / Entertainment

Ak Writers Festival: George Friedman looks to the future

By linda herrick
NZ Herald·
16 May, 2009 09:54 PM2 mins to read

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George Friedman.

George Friedman.

American global intelligence expert George Friedman was paired with a formidable chair in talkback host Leighton Smith - his brother-in-law.

"That doesn¹t mean we like each other," quipped Smith before going on to grill Friedman on the premises of his latest book The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century.

Which sounds like fantasy but when Friedman looked back at the 20th century and discussed key events which could never have been predicted in 1900 (except by science fiction writers), his analysis started to look credible. And a little scary.

Among Friedman¹s predictions: the world will be dominated by a single global power - the US; population growth will collapse, meaning a shortage of labour; labour-saving devices will be key, demanding new sources of energy, likely to come from space.

At which Smith pointed out that Friedman shares an editor with Dan Brown.

Friedman also went on to say that space will become "the centre of gravity of warfare" and future attacks on the US will involve attacks on space.

New Zealand doesn't get a mention in the book, said Smith. Why not? Well, said Friedman, New Zealand doesn't have the weight to move history. We are dependent on the global trading regime and reliant on sea lanes we have no control over.

As for China? Its export-dependent economy is in big trouble. A huge proportion of its population is very poor. The big players of the future, he went on to boldly assert, will be Mexico, Poland, Japan and Turkey. Why? You¹ll have to read the book.

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