Overseas visitor numbers were up in August with a big surge in Australian visitors.
And an airline industry leader says visitor numbers this summer could get close to the pre-pandemic levels which have eluded New Zealand for years.
Stats NZ today said 230,300 overseas travellers arrived in the month, compared to about 214,000 a year earlier.
“The numbers are positive and they hopefully are the beginning of a period of growth over this summer,” Board of Airline Representatives (Barnz) executive director Cath O’Brien said.
“I would expect to see that growth continue over the New Zealand summer.”
O’Brien said New Zealand’s airline capacity for the “northern winter” from October to March was forecast to be up 8.2% compared to a year earlier.
ASB economists said inbound tourism numbers had plateaued at levels below pre-pandemic peaks, but a weaker New Zealand dollar might encourage higher tourist spending.
“The lift over the past two months is encouraging, and there does appear to be some gradual recovery in visitor numbers starting to take place,” they added.
ASB said in winter, visitor arrivals were 5% higher than the same time last year.
But much of that lift was from Australia, and ASB said short-term visitors from across the Tasman tended to have shorter stays and spend less than others.
Stats NZ said Australians comprised 53% of all recorded visitors from overseas in August.
New Zealand also had more visitors from China, Taiwan and Japan compared to a year earlier.
The total number of August overseas visitor arrivals was 92% of the pre-pandemic peak.
Across the year to the end of August, overseas visitor arrivals numbered 3.41 million, an increase of 177,000 from the previous 12 months.
The biggest increases were from Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan.
Alongside overseas visitor numbers data, Tourism Industry Aotearoa (TIA) has released its latest member workforce survey, with business confidence on the rise.
It said 86% of tourism organisations reported feeling confident about the year ahead, up 11% on 2024’s results.
TIA chief executive Rebecca Ingram said it was incredibly positive that optimism is high heading into the summer season, particularly given how tough the economy is.
“Arrivals, while variable, are showing growth, with arrivals to the end of July inching up to 87% of pre-Covid levels.
“Our members have also told us they are seeing good forward bookings, indicating the potential of a further lift over summer,” Ingram said.
Ingram highlighted industry-wide announcements as boosting the sector’s optimism.
She cited greater airline connectivity, and the opening of the New Zealand International Conference Centre in February and One New Zealand Stadium in Ōtautahi Christchurch due in April.
“With 47% of survey respondents actively recruiting, the industry is gearing up for summer. Importantly these jobs are spread across the country and deliver broad economic benefits for communities across the motu.”
Survey respondents said the top challenges facing the tourism industry were the same as the year prior, including rising costs and product pricing, weather-related challenges, and managing burnout and staff mental wellbeing.
On the latter challenge, many respondents said they were taking steps to ensure they were an employer of choice.
Those steps included offering flexible work hours, encouraging staff to attend conferences and events (up 7% year-on-year to 44%), providing equal opportunities for career progression (up 2% to 40%) and actively adopting new technology to boost workplace efficiencies (up 4% to 36%).
Infometrics economists said tourism arrivals were growing modestly, with 2.2% growth in August after 2.7% growth in July on a monthly seasonally adjusted basis.
It said out of 18 major markets, all except India and the Netherlands recorded growth in August.
Infometrics said visitor arrivals to Christchurch were up 17% year-on-year in August, reaching 88% of pre-pandemic levels.
Auckland, Wellington, and Queenstown all recorded steady arrivals growth of about 5% year-on-year, the economists said.
Arrivals on new routes into Dunedin and Hamilton had stabilised at a similar level to July.
“The US market, which drove our post-pandemic recovery and then stalled this year, recorded modest yet positive growth too,” Infometrics added.
“The US remains the largest tourism market by dollar value for most NZ regions, so economic fragility in the US remains a key risk to our tourism sector.”
Meanwhile, New Zealand’s annual net migration rate fell to 10,600 for the year to August.
Stats NZ said there were 73,900 migrant departures, exceeding the previous record of 73,300 in July 2025 year.