The Budget will not be a poll changer. Even in an election year, Budgets rarely give a bounce. It is far more important for the Budget to give the electorate the reassurance that the coalition has a credible programme to get the country on track, than to give some short-lived sugar hit in the polls.
It is an extraordinarily difficult Budget. Government spending exceeds income. As the biggest borrower, high interest rates will hit the Government hard. Billions of dollars recklessly borrowed by Labour at near-zero per cent interest are coming due and must be rolled over at significantly higher rates of interest.
Payment on government debt will become a much bigger item of government expenditure, taking away money the coalition would rather spend on health and education.
Given the squeeze on household incomes, Nicola Willis’ tax relief pledge has become a necessity. She also pledged the tax cuts will be funded by savings and new revenue and not by borrowing. This will not be a popular Budget.
If the coalition is to be re-elected, it must keep its nerve and continue the pace of its reforms.
Just as Labour was all the message and no delivery, this Government is all delivery and no messaging.
Ministers seem to believe the way to communicate is via TikTok, Facebook and X. New media have their place, but it is not possible to communicate a coherent government strategy via sound bites.
The coalition parties need to agree on their core messages.
The coalition must then take us into its confidence and do more than issue a list of items to be ticked off in the next 100 days.
Those who make investment and employment decisions need to know how the Government intends to achieve its goals.
It is not enough to say the economy is “fragile” and then make us wait until Budget day. The Finance Minister should be sharing the Government’s thinking.
In every segment of the community, there are decision-makers who need to know the Government’s strategy.
Winston Peters last week showed the way to reach these influencers when the Foreign Minister gave two substantive speeches, one to the New Zealand China Council and another to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. Peters set out his thinking on foreign affairs and defence.
Peters says the world today is a much more dangerous place than it was 40 years ago. He is correct that these developments mean the Government must review both its foreign and defence policies.
Peters is also correct that no one knows what benefits Aukus Pillar II may offer. Regardless of the benefits, the minister is yet to explain how New Zealand will be more secure by joining a military alliance aimed at our biggest trading partner with whom we have friendly relations.
Despite the reporting of the speeches being overshadowed by Peters’ abuse of those who question Aukus, his addresses demonstrate how substantive speeches can lead public opinion.
Where are the substantive speeches from the Prime Minister or the Finance Minister? An internet search turned up very few speeches. There is a Waitangi speech that is a rehash of last year’s, a State of the Nation speech, and a speech on the economy by the Finance Minister back in February.
It is hard to get good media when the coalition gives so few speeches.
When Norman Kirk died, they published a book of his speeches.
When we were doing the Rogernomics reforms, ministers gave speeches every week explaining what we were doing and why.
To turn the polls around the Government’s action plans need to be accompanied by speeches of explanation and aspiration. There is a problem with Christopher Luxon just issuing this press statement of aims:
“1. Rebuilding the economy and easing the cost of living;
2. Restoring law and order; and
3. Delivering better public services”.
As President Bush snr famously put it, the aims lack “that vision thing”.
Of course, a drop in the price of petrol would also do wonders for the coalition’s polling.
- Richard Prebble is a former Labour Party minister and Act Party leader. He currently holds a number of directorships.
