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Home / Business / Economy / Official Cash Rate

Petrol rise only inflation booster

Brian Fallow
By Brian Fallow
Columnist·NZ Herald·
16 Jul, 2015 05:00 PM4 mins to read

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One economist sees limited scope for retailers to pass on price increases to wary consumers.

One economist sees limited scope for retailers to pass on price increases to wary consumers.

Rate in Auckland slightly higher than rest of country, but it’s still below target.

Inflation remained low in the June quarter, but not quite as low in Auckland as in the country as a whole.

The consumers price index rose 0.4 per cent in the quarter, entirely explained by an 8.8 per cent rise in petrol prices, without which the inflation rate would have been zero.

That lifted the annual rate to 0.3 per cent from 0.1 per cent in the March quarter. It was the third successive quarter in which it has been below the bottom of the Reserve Bank's 1 to 3 per cent target band.

But a regional breakdown showed a CPI rise of 0.5 per cent in Auckland for the year and 0.7 per cent for the quarter.

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Construction costs account for almost all of the higher annual rate in the city.

The CPI does not include house prices except for newly built houses (excluding land). Those prices rose 7.6 per cent in Auckland in the year to June, up from 5.9 per cent in the year to March and above the national rise of 5.3 per cent.

In the latest quarter, Auckland building costs rose at almost twice the national pace, 2.8 per cent against 1.5 per cent nationwide and 0.7 per cent in Canterbury.

Indicators of core inflation remained benign.

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The Reserve Bank's preferred measure of core inflation was unchanged at 1.3 per cent.

And non-tradeable inflation - the 56 per cent of the CPI in which prices are not influenced by international prices and the exchange rate - was 0.1 per cent in the June quarter and 2 per cent for the year - the weakest annual rate since 2001.

Electricity prices, for example, were flat in the year, a 14-year low.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said that with the headline rate so close to deflation there was little room for error and the weaker-than-expected non-tradeable inflation result would be a concern for the Reserve Bank.

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Westpac economist Michael Gordon said the June inflation figures highlighted that the Reserve Bank had its work cut out for it as it aimed to bring inflation back towards the 2 per cent midpoint of its target over the next couple of years.

"That task will become more difficult with a domestic economy that appears to have reached peak growth last year, and has shown some distinct wobbles in the last few months," Gordon said.

"The deteriorating outlook for dairy earnings is also a major concern, and we regard the 10.7 per cent decline in dairy prices in [Wednesday] night's auction as very material.

"It is increasingly clear that a lower exchange rate is needed."

Westpac now expects the Reserve Bank to cut the official cash rate to 2 per cent, from 3.25 per cent now, by the end of this year.

From the opposite, hawkish end of the spectrum of market economist opinion the Bank of New Zealand's Craig Ebert points to the potential effect of a sharply weaker New Zealand dollar on tradeables prices.

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"We think the [Reserve] Bank will be hard pressed not to forecast a noticeable pick-up in annual CPI inflation for next year, given the extent of the currency drop so far."

But ANZ economist Mark Smith sees limited scope for retailers to pass on price increases to wary consumers.

He said: "Inflation looks set to remain low over 2015, with slowing growth momentum expected to continue to dampen domestically generated price pressures."

Flat feeling

• 0.4% rise in the consumers price index in June quarter.

• Without 8.8% rise in petrol, rate in quarter would have been zero.

• 0.3% Annual rate - below bottom of Reserve Bank's target band.

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