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Home / Business

NZ GDP fair to middling over June quarter, but confirms slowdown

Jamie Gray
By Jamie Gray
Business Reporter·NZ Herald·
19 Sep, 2019 05:55 AM4 mins to read

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Latest GDP data points to fair to middling performance over the June quarter. Photo / Bay of Plenty Times.

Latest GDP data points to fair to middling performance over the June quarter. Photo / Bay of Plenty Times.

The New Zealand economy put in fair to middling performance over the June quarter while the annual growth rate fell to a six-year low, according to Stats NZ data.

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• Liam Dann: GDP data offers a test of your mindset

Its report on gross domestic product (GDP) showed economic growth lifted by 0.5 per cent over the June quarter, for a 2.1 per cent gain over the same quarter of last year.

The gain compared with a 0.6 per cent rise in the March quarter, for a quarter-on-quarter rise of 2.5 per cent.

The annual GDP average came to 2.4 per cent in the June year, against 2.7 per cent for the March year.

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Market expectations were for a 0.4 per cent gain, and the release was in line with the Reserve Bank's forecast.

It was the first GDP release since the Reserve Bank surprised the market with a greater- than-expected half a point cut in the official cash rate to 1.00 per cent in August, which was designed to stimulate the economy in the face of mounting headwinds.

Market expectations are that the Reserve Bank will not move the rate at its review next Wednesday but will cut again in November and again early next year.

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ASB economist Mark Smith said he expects the another 0.5 per cent lift in GDP in the current September quarter, but that there was a 30 per cent chance of a negative outcome over the next 12 months.

Moves by Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr exhorting businesses and consumers to spend more seem to have fallen on deaf ears, Smith said.

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"The message is that there is still some good news out there - our terms of trade are good, unemployment is low, and interest rates are low, but there is that element of uncertainty which, if firms and consumers sit on their hands, is going to exacerbate any potential slowdown," Smith told the Herald.

"Things are certainly coming off and sub-trend growth is very much the new norm, as it has been for the last year or so," he said.

"The Reserve Bank has certainly thrown down the gauntlet but people are not paying much attention to that at the moment," he said.

"There are other issues out there that are probably of more concern to them," Smith said.
ANZ said the New Zealand economy "lives to fight another quarter".

"The broader narrative that economic momentum is slowly running out of puff was confirmed in today's GDP figures," the bank said.

ANZ expects the slowdown to persist into early 2020.

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Looking ahead, the ANZ expects to see OCR cuts quarter point cuts in for November, February and May, taking the rate to just 0.25 per cent.

Stats NZ said the service industries, which represent about two-thirds of the economy, were the main contributor to GDP growth in the quarter, rising 0.7 per cent off the back of a subdued result in the March quarter.

The department's national accounts senior manager Gary Dunnet said the service industries recorded broad based growth, with eight of the 11 industries showing positive results.

Household expenditure on services saw a corresponding increase, rising by 0.5 per cent.
Goods producing industries fell 0.2 per cent in the June quarter, driven by declines in manufacturing and construction.

The size of New Zealand's economy in annual current price terms hit a milestone in the June 2019 quarter, reaching $300 billion for the first time.

"It took about fourteen years for the economy to go from $100b to $200b, and nine years to reach $300b," Dunnet said.

Earlier in the day, the US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate for a second time this year, reflecting concerns about weaker business investment and exports.

The Fed's move will reduce its benchmark rate — which influences many consumer and business loans — by an additional quarter-point to a range of 1.75 per cent to 2 per cent.

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