ASB rural economist Nathan Penny said a flourish late in the season helped to revive production after a wetter-than-normal spring, followed by drought conditions in parts of the country over the summer.
"To come back to this level is not a bad finish," Penny said.
Commentators had expected production to fall over the year, which they expecterd to put upward pressure on GlobalDairyTrade prices.
"In the very short term, there will not be as much supply pressure as we would have expected," he said.
"It may mean that there is more of a sideways movement, so not the upside that we thought would be the case a month or two ago," he said.
Penny said that while the industry as a whole looked like it had emerged largely unscathed from the effects of unfavourable weather, some areas - such as parts of the Taranaki - would have experienced a tough season.