Economy Hub: How do economists even start to assess the scale of coronavirus damage?

How do economists even begin to assess the outlook for the New Zealand economy?

"You scratch your head and say where were we, where are we going and what are the likely impacts," says KiwiBank chief economist Jarrod Kerr.

Just two weeks ago it still looked like a trade disruption that would cause a contraction in the first quarter, a slowdown in the second quarter and then a bounce back, he told The Economy Hub.

"Now that the borders are closed ... large parts, if not most parts of the economy will be disrupted by this and I don't think this will be over in the next three to six months," he said.

READ MORE:
• Coronavirus: NZ facing worst-case economic scenario, says Grant Robertson
• Coronavirus and NZ's economy: Govt faces unpleasant trade-offs
• Coronavirus in NZ: Jacinda Adern explains Government's $12 billion economy rescue package
• Coronavirus financial package: Government's $12b support plan for businesses, beneficiaries

"I think this is something that is going to continue to linger as we extend these measures to try and slow the virus down."

KiwiBank's current forecast is for a recession across three quarters of the year.

Hopes for a sharp v-shaped recovery had faded, Kerr said.

"It's just one that's going to be much larger and longer than we first thought."

"We've gone from thinking that this is a trade shock delivered by China and disrupting global supply chains to realising this is a pandemic and it's going to influence just about every business that we have."

"Equity markets are rightly looking at all of the businesses and basically selling those stocks," he said.

Kerr said his daily assessment of the economic crisis started each morning with financial markets - in particular fixed income debt markets.

"Unfortunately the economic data we get our hands on is often quite delayed and in a situation as rapid as this it is quite often outdated by the time we see it," he said.

"So we're looking for movements in the currencies and bond markets ... What we've seen in the past two weeks is exceptional."

"We've seen financial markets react in a way that they haven't for more than a decade."

"We're seeing money being poured into fixed income markets because it's a safe asset," he said.

But some credit markets "were blowing out because companies are perceived to be up against the wall and might not be able to pay back debt. So there is a lot of stress."

Meanwhile, the commercial banks are in much better shape than they were in 2008.

"We're certainly not immune but the composition of bank funding is a lot better than it was a 10 years ago.

"We've got a reduced reliance on wholesale short term funding. The central bank has come up with a facility we can access three six, 12-month funding. The pressures are not the same."

Kerr said he expected to see more action from the central bank in coming days.