NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy

Trade war not all bad news for New Zealand - economist

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
28 May, 2019 11:00 PM3 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

US President Donald Trump, right, chats with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photo / AP

US President Donald Trump, right, chats with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photo / AP

While the trade war between the US and China has escalated, New Zealand's economy remains well placed, with little fallout as yet, says ANZ chief economist for China, Dr Raymond Yeung.

Hong Kong based Yeung, who was in New Zealand this week, says the intense technology-sector focus of the trade war had meant consumer demand for New Zealand food products was largely untouched.

"I think sometimes we pay too much attention to the Chinese GDP number," he said. "The reality is that if you observe the Chinese import number, it's much more important. That's clearly reflected in the New Zealand export numbers."

In March, New Zealand exports rose $899 million (19 per cent) to reach $5.7 billion - a new record for any month.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Of our main export markets, China had the largest increase, up $522m (52 per cent) to $1.5b.

Broadly, China's topline GDP growth had been under pressure, Yeung said.

"Market sentiment is bad at the moment and we can't deny the impact of the trade war in some particular sectors," he said.

We were seeing a period of trade recession in first half of 2019, he said.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

But that was to do with the trade war and the downturn of the Chinese electronic sector as supply chains were disrupted by US trade measures.

US President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs of 25 per cent on US$200b of Chinese products and banned US companies from trading with Chinese tech giant Huawei.

Discover more

Capital markets report

Liam Dann: Trump playing global market like a yo-yo

22 May 06:38 AM
Business

World facing $923 billion crisis

22 May 03:57 AM
Business

Trump announces US$16 billion aid package for farmers hit by trade war

23 May 08:37 PM
Opinion

Liam Dann: Government can't blame trade war for low growth

01 Jun 05:00 PM
Has Huawei's bubble burst? Photo / AP
Has Huawei's bubble burst? Photo / AP

"In terms of numbers it [GDP growth] is lower than last year. But my forecast for the full year is still 6.4 per cent," Yeung said.

That was factoring in some of the government stimulus that had been introduced to offset the trade-war impacts.

"I expect the Chinese Government will continue to do a lot of infrastructure investment and channel their resources to the right sectors. I think the overall GDP number will still be pretty stable."

That meant demand was likely to hold up for New Zealand exports - in the short term at least.

"China is a domestically led economy, especially from a New Zealand perspective," he said.

"In the near term at least - over the next 12 to 24 months the trend for New Zealand to increase exports to China will continue."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Overall the big driver of the Chinese economy continued to be the story of structural reform and transformation to a more modern economy, he said.

Longer term the key would be whether China could successfully manage the economic transition and pass through the "middle-income trap".

This was something that had happened with other Asian economies, where a period of strong export growth had not been followed with a shift to more developed industries' ultimately higher incomes levels, Yeung said.

The trade war was important to the extent that the tensions with the US were focused on technology and China's attempts to move the economy up the value chain, he said.

"If China can tackle the challenge imposed by the US at the moment that will be a good sign."

But while the macro-economy of China was likely to stay stable the trade war risks for the commercial sector couldn't be ignored, Yeung said.

"This is a real issue that businesses will need to keep an eye on because it is very likely the current tension between the US and China will continue to drag on until 2020.

Want to see more from Liam Dann? Sign up here for the Business News newsletter to get the best premium stories sent to your inbox daily.

Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

Latest from Economy

Premium
Stock takes

Stock Takes: The power company gaining the most from the big wet

10 Jul 09:00 PM
Premium
Opinion

Matthew Hooton: The case for abolishing regional councils in NZ

10 Jul 05:00 PM
Premium
Technology

Video game sector jobs up 20.5% with tax rebate, but half of funds unclaimed

09 Jul 05:00 PM

From early mornings to easy living

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Economy

Premium
Stock Takes: The power company gaining the most from the big wet

Stock Takes: The power company gaining the most from the big wet

10 Jul 09:00 PM

Hydro storage in New Zealand is now above the long-run average, thanks to heavy rain.

Premium
Matthew Hooton: The case for abolishing regional councils in NZ

Matthew Hooton: The case for abolishing regional councils in NZ

10 Jul 05:00 PM
Premium
Video game sector jobs up 20.5% with tax rebate, but half of funds unclaimed

Video game sector jobs up 20.5% with tax rebate, but half of funds unclaimed

09 Jul 05:00 PM
Premium
Rates on hold: What the Reserve Bank's decision means for Kiwis

Rates on hold: What the Reserve Bank's decision means for Kiwis

09 Jul 06:00 AM
Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky
sponsored

Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP