That would have been true a few years ago when house prices were still rising rapidly, not so now. Investors in rental property can no longer count on the capital gains they used to enjoy and must be already looking to rents for a return on the investment.
Prices seem unlikely to take off again as the Government sets about selling lower-cost homes and imposing more obligations on landlords. Right now, property investors have little to lose to a capital gains tax.
Collins points out, however, that the tax is unlikely to be confined to property. Will farmers be taxed on the rise on value of their farms and stock, she asks. Will owners of a small business be taxed when they sell it for retirement. Will estates be subject to the tax when they are inherited.
Principles of fairness and tax neutrality says all forms of capital gain should be taxed, but is that necessary? Property is much less risky than most business investments, which is why there is such a demand for it, especially in a small economy such as New Zealand where other business opportunities are limited by the size of the market.
We have plenty of investment in property and could do with more of it in productive new ventures. Selective taxation of property could send more investment into productive alternatives.
If Cullen's group is as bold as it could be, the economy could gain.