Top brokerage firm Forsyth Barr is tipping Amazon to expand into New Zealand after its arrival next year in Australia.

In a research report to its clients, the firm said: "Once Australia is bedded in, New Zealand presents a logical extension to Amazon's investment in the region."

Amazon confirmed this year that it was planning to launch in Australia in 2018, with its full service suite including Amazon MarketPlace, Amazon Prime Now and eventually Amazon Pantry and Amazon Fresh.

The company has reportedly leased its first warehouse in Melbourne this week.


Forsyth Barr said the arrival in Australia of the e-commerce giant would put increasing pressure on the retail landscape through its low-price model, adding that the likelihood of the company coming to New Zealand had increased.

"Amazon is expected to physically enter the Australian market in late 2018," Forsyth Barr said.

"Consequently, the likelihood of Amazon entering the New Zealand market has increased."

Forsyth Barr said there were several possibilities for how Amazon may do business in New Zealand in the coming years, either through establishing a presence in the country, or setting up a fulfillment centre.

It may also choose to simply ship products from Australia to New Zealand customers.

The impact on New Zealand businesses would vary based on which option it chose, the firm said.

In its report, it The Warehouse Group, Briscoe Group, Sky TV, Stride Property and NPT as the listed companies that would be effected the most by Amazon's arrival in New Zealand.

"Amazon's extensive range and dynamic pricing is likely to put pressure on local retailers," the firm said.


The report also noted bricks and mortar still had a place.

"The offline retail channel still [represents] the majority of retail sales under our scenarios and globally," the report said.

"Nonetheless retailers like Amazon typically put greater scrutiny and pressure on prices."

The arrival of Amazon in other markets has accelerated growth of e-commerce markets and is likely to do the same in Australia.

The property sector is also likely to be impacted, the company said.

"Retailers will still encompass a 'bricks and clicks' strategy with a physical retail footprint; however, this will involve smaller stores and a lower number of stores, reducing demand for space," it said.

"Department stores, particularly discount department stores, and supermarkets will be most impacted by e-commerce in our view."

Amazon's arrival in New Zealand would also likely impact on transport and freight, lowering the cost and delivery times.

"Amazon impacts principally on two aspects of the freight supply chain - the last mile for parcels, and warehousing and transfers of freight between facilities," it said.

"A key risk to the parcel volume outlook is Amazon's potential to internalise the last mile as it has done in other countries."