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Home / Business / Markets

Jarden Brief: US easily dodges recession as growth surges, confounds doomsayers

NZ Herald
27 Oct, 2022 07:31 PM6 mins to read

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The skyline in Chicago, the United States' third-biggest urban economy. Photo / Getty

The skyline in Chicago, the United States' third-biggest urban economy. Photo / Getty

Keeping you up to date with the latest market moves, in association with Investment firm Jarden

International

US

Mixed reactions came with the release of higher than anticipated third quarter US GDP at 2.6 per cent (annualised) above the expected 2.4 per cent, and much greater than the previous reading of 0.6 per cent, allowing the US to avoid recession.

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Personal consumption and durable goods orders also moved higher, while initial jobless claims for the previous week were mostly in line with expectations at 217,000 vs the previous reading of 214,000.

Meta Platforms (Facebook's parent company) fell 18 per cent in aftermarket trading (currently down 23 per cent at the time of writing) in the wake of its quarterly results which featured revenue of US$27.7 billion, down 4 per cent year on year, largely attributable to decreased international revenues from a stronger US dollar.

Importantly, the company issued guidance of fourth quarter revenue in the range of 30-32.5 billion, lighter than investor expectations.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg doubled down on his commitment to spend billions developing the Metaverse, a product which has cost US$9.4bn so far in 2022 for just US$285 million in revenue.

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These movements leave Meta with its lowest market capitalisation since 2016, pulling the tech-laden Nasdaq down to a 1.1 per cent loss at the time of writing

Align Technology (down 17.7 per cent) and West Pharmaceutical Services (down 11.0 per cent) joined Meta on the underperformers podium.

Aircraft and wider aviation products manufacturer Boeing surged 5.5 per cent, discussing strong travel demand propping up its main airline customers, giving confidence in its near term aircraft orderbook, which consists of a backlog of US$381 billion in orders of 4,300 commercial airplanes.

Rest of the World

The European Central Bank (ECB) lifted its main refinancing rate by an expected 75 basis points, its third consecutive increase this year, moving the rate to 2.0 per cent.

ECB President Christine Lagarde also scaled back support for some of the larger banks, altering the terms and conditions on long term refinancing options, which provided these large institutions with attractive borrowing conditions.

Comment from Lagarde included that a "normalisation" process had not yet begun, with a string of further rate hikes likely expected.

Lower investment banking revenues, losses relating to business in Russia, along with a raft of litigation costs left Investment bank Credit Suisse down 18 per cent overnight.

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Third quarter results rendered a loss of over CHF 4 billion, with the company announcing the first stages of a strategic overhaul.

Asia markets were mostly mixed overnight as tech stocks were responsible for buoying the Hang Seng to a 0.7 per cent increase.

South Korea GDP figures landed on a 0.3 per cent increase for the quarter, its lowest growth rate since 3Q 2021, while China's industrial profits for the first 9 months of the year lost 2.3 per cent compared to a year ago.

New Zealand

The NZX 50 moved 0.5 per cent higher to close the day at 11,100 points.

Flagged as a potential transaction at the SkyCity FY22 result in late August, Macquarie Principal Finance provided a termination notice in relation to its long-term concession over the SkyCity Auckland car park.

SkyCity's $220m deal to offload car parks to investment giant Macquarie fell through due to damage from the 2019 fire at the NZ International Convention Centre construction site. Photo / Dean Purcell
SkyCity's $220m deal to offload car parks to investment giant Macquarie fell through due to damage from the 2019 fire at the NZ International Convention Centre construction site. Photo / Dean Purcell

The original deal was struck in 2019, with Macquarie paying NZ$220 million for the asset. Investors seem to have reacted unfavourably to the thought of SkyCity having to re-purchase the carpark, leaving the company down 0.4 per cent at the close.

Other stock-specific news included first quarter trading updates from Freightways (+1.7 per cent) and healthcare company EBOS (+2.5 per cent).

Freightways reported revenue and profit of $237 and $19.3 million and it expects volumes to be slightly down compared to last year.

However, the company said it is yet to see any material impact on its customers from the current economic environment. EBOS made an operating profit of circa A$140m, reflecting double digit growth on 1Q22.

Australia

Major bank ANZ (dual listed in both Australia and New Zealand) posted its FY22 result on Thursday.

Highlights included a cash profit of A$6.52 billion and net interest margins of 1.68 per cent, with both measures above analyst expectations.

Management commentary surrounding the current cost of living pressures and near term economic backdrop were in the spotlight - the stock traded down 3.3 per cent by close.

The result appeared to have provided a negative read through for the industry, with the other of the big four Australian Banks weighing down the index, including NAB (down 0.5 per cent) and Westpac (down 1.0 per cent), alongside Commonwealth Bank as the outlier, increasing 0.4 per cent.

More from the financial sector came from fund manager Pinnacle, which at an investor briefing reported net outflows of A$1.2 billion and a fall in total assets under management of A$3.2 billion to A$80.5 billion.

Shares in the company fell 3.3 per cent on this news.

Other trading updates of note from the ASX came from JB Hi-Fi (up 0.4 per cent) and Insignia Financial (down 1.6 per cent).

Australian terms of trade data saw export prices falling 3.6 per cent and import prices up 3.0 per cent in the third quarter of the 2022 calendar year, an unfavorable mix leading to an overall figure of 135 points from 144.

Import prices were driven by electrical machinery apparatus and appliances (up 5.1 per cent), apparel and clothing (up 6.8 per cent) as well as larger moves from minerals (up 30 per cent) and plastics (up 28.6 per cent).

Lastly, miner Core Lithium lost 5.2 per cent, the second worst-performing stock of the day, with news that their negotiations with EV maker Tesla have stalled after the parties failed to agree on key contract terms for a new supply deal.

Coming up today

In Australia, ResMed will report first quarterly earnings along with updates from Fortescue Metals, Newcrest Mining, Insignia Financial and Karoon Gas.

Domestically, ANZ Consumer Confidence data is expected along with an AGM for SkyCity Entertainment.

• For more information on the latest market moves, get in touch with Jarden.

All market pricing and announcements are sourced from Refinitiv, NZX and ASX.

The Jarden Brief is provided for general information purposes only. It reflects views and research available at the time of publication, using external sources, systems and other data and information we believe to be accurate, complete and reliable at the time of preparation.  We make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, correctness and completeness of that information, and will not be liable or responsible for any error or omission.  The Jarden Brief is not to be relied upon as a basis for making any investment decision. Please seek specific investment advice before making any investment decision. Jarden Securities Limited is an NZX Firm.  A financial advice disclosure statement is available free of charge at https://www.jarden.co.nz/our-services/wealth-management/financial-advice-provider-disclosure-statement/.
Full disclaimer available at: https://www.jarden.co.nz/wealth-sales-and-research-disclaimer

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