As we say goodbye to 2022 and welcome in 2023, it’s a good time to catch up on the very best of the Herald columnists we enjoyed reading over the last 12 months. From politics to sport, from business to entertainment and lifestyle, these are the voices and views our
Liam Dann: RIP housing market boom - you won’t be missed
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New Zealand's housing market boom quietly died earlier this year. Photo / NZME
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
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Economists called time on an epic period of growth that dates back more than a decade and has seen median prices more than double.
I guess it could still end up being like one of those annoying TV show deaths.
You know the ones, we see the main character cut down, lying bleeding and lifeless in the season finale - only for the scriptwriters to concoct a miraculous recovery.
But I’m not sure this market has the scriptwriters on its side.
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Who’s swimming naked as tide of easy money goes out? - May 8
“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked,” sharemarket legend Warren Buffett once said.
I hope I’m less prescient than Herald columnist Brian Fallow, who opened with that same line in August 2007.
Fallow was writing about the credit crunch, an early warning sign of what eventually blew up into the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
The line itself is so old that I can’t find any reference online to when Buffet first said it. But the 91-year-old was on stage last weekend at the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting delivering much the same message.
Buffet means that a high tide of cheap credit and bull market growth makes us all look good. When the tide goes out, it exposes the reckless and unprepared.
The tide is now going out. And it’s going out fast.
So, crash, slump, correction or bust? Call it what you want, it is happening. All the market noise is just the sound of central banks sucking cash out of the economy.
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The big storm warning we should take seriously - June 5
Jamie Dimon, chief executive of giant investment bank JPMorgan Chase, just warned that the American economy has a hurricane headed its way.
If it does, then so too does New Zealand - although I guess we’d call it a cyclone down here in the Southern Hemisphere.
Hurricane, cyclone, whatever. Dimon was reminding us that we are still headed into the storm.
It was a chilling warning from someone who’s had a birds-eye view of the US financial system for decades.
Dimon has been JPMorgan CEO since 2005, he steered it through the Global Financial Crisis. He’s been on the US Federal Reserve’s board of directors.
He’s a billionaire but he’s no Elon Musk - which is to say he doesn’t joke around with frivolous comments on social media.
He’s not party politically motivated. He’s a conservative Democrat, which means he isn’t just trying to undermine Joe Biden’s presidency with his negativity.
There’s no shortage of people - including myself - who’ve warned the next several months will be tough as interest rates are hiked to bring inflation to heel.
Tribal politics holding New Zealand back - November 6
What do we want New Zealand’s economy to look like in 20 years?
If we stick to some broad themes, it isn’t such a tough question. We want it to be more prosperous. We want it to be fairer. We want less poverty and more opportunity for everyone to thrive.
We want future generations to enjoy the beach and the bush and the mountains. We want them to enjoy thriving cultural scenes with great food, music and entertainment.
We want to pass on the Kiwi lifestyle that has defined our national character and made us proud and thankful to live here.
None of that is too controversial, is it? I think the leaders of all the major political parties would sign up for the ideas outlined above. So why does making progress towards those goals feel so hard?
Obviously, things can get tricky when we dig into the detail. Particularly when we start to look at how we share the costs and benefits of investing in the future.
But that’s ultimately just transactional. Sadly, I think there’s a bigger issue holding us back. I think it’s our politics.
The brain drain returns as NZ reboots migration - April 3
Of all the variables that influence our economy, few have been disrupted as radically as immigration in the past two years. We’ve effectively turned the whole country off and on again.
But (as I always tell the IT department), rebooting might not resolve all the issues.
It looks like New Zealand faces a return of the infamous “brain drain” as borders open and our young skilled workers head offshore for their “big OE”.
Labour shortages are currently a global phenomenon, which means opportunities abound for those with an inclination to get out and see the world.
There were also a large number of Kiwis who were living internationally but returned to the security of our shores when the pandemic hit. Many of them will have retained connections to their adopted homes, making it easier for them to head back.
We shouldn’t be surprised by this. It was inevitable that there would be a sudden outflow as border restrictions eased. We shouldn’t be too alarmed by it either. It is really just a sign that normal service is resuming, albeit with an initial catch-up spike.
It is worth remembering that the “brain drain” has been a near constant phenomenon for the past 50 years.
