Infratil says it expects operating earnings could fall in the year ending March 2020 not including incentive fees.
The infrastructure investor is forecasting earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and financial instruments will be between $510-540 million for the year beginning this month.
On Monday, Infratil lowered its guidance for the year just gone to $535-545 million from the $580-620 million expected previously.
The 2020 forecast assumes its 51 per cent-owned Trustpower reports ebitdaf of $205-225 million, that its 65.3 per cent-owned Tilt Renewables will report ebitdaf of A$122-129 million and that Infratil's share of 48 per cent-owned Canberra Data Centres' ebitdaf will be A$52 million.
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It also assumes its Longroad investment will deliver three development project gains together with the already realised Rio Bravo gain.
Project Rio Bravo, a 238 megawatt windfarm in Texas, was to have been recorded in the year just gone but has been pushed into the current year. Its sale was announced in December and Infratil said then that it expects to receive repayment of approximately US$49.4 million of funding and accrued interest on settlement.
The 2020 forecast doesn't include any earnings from NZ Bus or from Perth Energy.
Infratil announced the conditional sale of NZ Bus for $218-240 million last December. The sale terms include a vendor loan of $20-30 million repayable within 5.5 years of completion. It is expected to settle by June 30.
Infratil shares last traded at $4.25 and have gained more than 35 per cent in the last 12 months.