Growth eating up land fast

By ANNE GIBSON

Auckland is running out of land.

The Regional Growth Forum has just released its Auckland Metropolitan Area: Capacity for Growth report, which says the city is becoming increasingly short of housing and business building sites.

Growth is the problem.

One person arrives in Auckland every 29 minutes, amounting to 50 extra people a day needing 21 new houses or flats (assuming, of course, that all the newcomers do not want to live alone).

When you read look at those figures, think of a baby gurgling happily, because most of the arrivals are newborns.

When the ARC studied growth between 1996 and 2001 it found 71 per cent comes from natural increase and 29 per cent is newcomers from overseas.

The latest update on the city's ability to cope with this level of growth makes worrying reading.

The capacity report uses aerial pictures taken in 2001 and assesses the city's growth up to that time.

It took 18 months to process the data and compile the report, which is why the study, dating back two years, was only released this weekend.

In his report, ARC strategic policy analyst Brian Waddell showed a steadily diminishing supply of land in the tight urban isthmus and greenfield zones.

The burgeoning growth in population, business and housing has brought with it a new spectre: a city squeezed up against the water without the opportunity to expand, creating more traffic problems and hampering economic growth, jobs, housing and people's enjoyment of life.

Some areas are worse off than others, depending on how much growth they have experienced in the past few years.

Manukau is worst off for new housing land.

Its supply of vacant residential land halved between 1996 and 2001, Waddell found.

Waitakere's supply of vacant residential land dropped by 35 per cent in that time, Rodney was down 30 per cent, and North Shore and Papakura were down 21 per cent.

Auckland City bucked the trend. Its vacant housing land supply fell only 2 per cent in those five years, but that was only because it had so little in 1996 anyway.

Overall, the amount of Auckland land vacant for housing fell 31 per cent during the five-year period.

That means the city has at worst 13 years and at best only 22 years worth of land vacant for housing, which does not meet the minimum threshold required, says the ARC.

"An important element in the growth forum's objective is to maintain 15 years of capacity for urban development," the report said.

"As of 2001, the metropolitan area of Auckland has an urban capacity for about 56,300 additional residential dwellings on vacant residential zoned land," the study said.

"In 1996, this figure was 70,700.

"There has been a decrease in capacity of 14,400 residential units, or 20 per cent of the capacity of Auckland's vacant land."

Much the same picture emerged with land for business expansion.

Waitakere had the new business-zoned land, (down 52 per cent in the seven years), followed by North Shore (down 38 per cent), Auckland city (down 26 per cent) and Manukau (down 15 per cent).

North Shore and Waitakere had business-zoned land for only another 10 years, although Waddell said Waitakere could address that by including new business areas within its Westgate/Hobsonville growth areas.

Rodney was the only area to increase its capacity of vacant business land, up 8 per cent in the five years. This was mainly the result of the Rodney District Council introducing new future urban area zones, notably in Orewa west for housing and Silverdale north for business.

"At the metropolitan level, vacant business land capacity decreased by 26 per cent over the five-year period, leaving an estimated overall supply for 15 years," Waddell's report said.

Even worse, some land zoned for business is being eaten up by housing, which is particularly worrying to ARC officials.

The report said 5470 new residential dwellings had been built on business-zoned land in Auckland City Council's jurisdiction in the five years.

"Business land has been accommodating a large proportion of new dwelling growth, notably within Auckland city," the study found.

Mike Smith, chief executive of the Rodney Economic Development Board, says a shortage of industrial land is costing Rodney District millions of dollars in lost investments.

The board has a backlog of investors and companies wanting to expand and establish in Rodney, he said.

Manukau mayor Sir Barry Curtis says growth in his city is also hampered.

A big international company could not move from Melbourne because Manukau could not provide the right parcel of land, the mayor said.

Waddell concludes that the city has to look to more intensive development to stop us running out of land.

"To ensure that the vacant land lasts for 15 years, it is important that policy which allows for additional capacity within the nodes and corridors identified in the Regional Growth Strategy and sector agreements is introduced as soon as possible," Waddell wrote.

The report's author has left the ARC and is now overseas.

The Growth Forum plans to take a fresh look at the issue in 2006.

* A copy of the forum's Auckland Metropolitan Area: Capacity for Growth report will be posted on the Auckland Regional Council's website. The report will also be available from the Auckland Regional Council's headquarters at Pitt St, Auckland (telephone 366-2000).

The rise and rise of Auckland

Last May the Auckland Regional Council had this to say, based on building consents from 1991 to 2001:

* 78,000 homes were built in the past 10 years - an investment of $10.5 billion.

* Houses were half as large again - 40sq m bigger - as they were 10 years ago.

* Four out of 10 new dwellings are either flats, apartments or townhouses.

* The fastest-growing housing area was southern Howick with 5815 house consents. Some way behind were Albany (1826), Manurewa southwest (1778) and Manurewa (1739).

* More people and more houses mean more cars: 23 new vehicles are driving on our roads every day, or 8395 more cars a year.