As New Zealand heads into 2021 it's pertinent to look at what is happening outside our moat.
Irrespective of the woeful international news about Covid: New strains which are more contagious and thus spread faster than before; lockdowns in the UK and parts of Sydney which have taken the tarnish from Christmas, more waves of infection in places which were considered to have the virus under control, like South Korea, and the continuing myopic stance of outgoing President Trump, there is some optimistic news.
First, US Vice-President Mike Pence is reported as having rejected special pleadings by some Republicans to join their attempts to subvert the results of the November presidential election. That means Trump will leave The White House.
Second, some realism from President-elect Joe Biden who says the vaccine rollout in the US has fallen behind expectations and warned it could take years before the bulk of Americans receive the necessary shots.
If so, that will place considerable drag on the US health system which, in some states, is close to being overwhelmed by the rising Covid cases.
It will inevitably mean it will take longer for the US economy to get back into full production.
Third, more Covid-19 vaccines are being developed. All going well New Zealanders should be vaccinated by the end of 2021.
Worldwide, CEOs are also reported to be more upbeat.
The latest McKinsey Global Survey reports executives are ending a year of global crisis and profound uncertainty on a relatively positive note. Their predictions for the future, and for their own companies' prospects, remain much more optimistic than not.
Executives in Europe, North America, and developing markets report more acute concerns than others about the economy, and those in Europe remain especially worried about unemployment. But even these respondents are less downbeat than they were in the previous quarter.
The McKinsey Global Survey cites executives are concerned about growing risks to their companies' growth in 2021 naming industry-wide competition and disruptions.
Interestingly, the executives' expectations for their home economies are increasingly positive: 63 per cent say economic conditions in their countries will be better six months from now, up from 54 per cent who said the same in mid-October.
This mirrors the results of the Herald's annual Mood of the Boardroom CEOs' Survey where executives reported they were more optimistic about the New Zealand economy than the global economy.
In the Herald survey, executives tended to also be more optimistic about their own businesses' future. In the McKinsey survey, executives also remain optimistic—and increasingly so. For the first time this year, respondents are more likely to say the size of their workforces will increase than to predict a decrease.
When it comes to detail, McKinsey says after some peaks and valleys in recent surveys, 61 per cent of respondents now predict global conditions will improve in the months ahead.
What's more, respondents are the likeliest they've been in the last three years to expect the global economy's growth rate will increase. Sixty-eight per cent predict increasing growth now, with only 24 per cent predicting a contraction—the smallest share to say so all year.
It's important for companies that their leaders remain upbeat. But also that this is based on realism.
Many of New Zealand's companies and leaders have displayed great resilience in 2020. With Covid entering a second wave internationally, that will be tested.
But there is no reason that our companies cannot display just the same resilience and verve that the Black Caps and Team NZ have.
