Elon Musk’s DOGE savings claims questioned amid inflated figures

• DOGE claimed to have saved $96 billion through layoffs, cancelled contracts, and lease renegotiations.
• A Washington Post analysis found many claimed savings were inflated or based on completed contracts.
• Experts say DOGE’s calculations include maximum contract amounts not fully spent or recoverable.

Elon Musk’s United States DOGE Service claimed this week to have saved an estimated US$55 billion ($96b), through a combination of layoffs, cancelled contracts, lease renegotiations and other actions.

However, a list that it posted of contracts and leases suggests that number is inflated.

DOGE has pledged to significantly reduce the size of the US federal government, both in terms of workforce and spending.

Elon Musk’s US DOGE Service claimed this week to have saved an estimated US$55 billion through a combination of layoffs, cancelled contracts, lease renegotiations and other actions. Photo / Getty Images

Its representatives have been dispatched to more than a dozen agencies to assess programmes and cut staff. Its rapid actions have drawn criticism from some who say the efforts are hurting essential work.

On its website, DOGE – which stands for Department of Government Efficiency – lists a select group of 1125 contracts it has cancelled, with a purported US$7.2b in savings it has reaped. These contract savings account for just 20% of total savings from the past month, the office says.

Yet a Washington Post analysis of the contract data found that many of the cancelled contracts were already complete, meaning cancelling them didn’t yield any money back because they had been fully paid out. And 417 of the deals on DOGE’s list indicate that they saved $0. Another 51 added up to savings of just under US$1m.

Billions in US dollars cut in contracts to manage US government programmes. Graphic / Washington Post

The DOGE website has made several modifications to the data since it went live earlier this week, wiping nearly US$9.3b from its originally listed savings.

The largest one addressed the cost of a terminated service-disabled veteran-owned management consultant contract with US Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Earlier versions of the contract in the FPDS database listed US$8b, but the most recent version of the contract listed US$8 million, which was earlier reported by the New York Times. The DOGE site listed initially the higher, older version of the number. DOGE said in a post on X that it has “always used the correct US$8m in its calculations”.

In more than 80 other instances, the DOGE site lists and links to older, modified versions of contracts on the Federal Procurement Data System, according to a Post analysis. Experts said this could make the overall savings estimate inaccurate.

And at least US$1.35b worth of listed savings on the site come from a type of contract that lists a maximum payout to enable easier purchases, even though the Government often doesn’t wind up paying that full amount. The contracts are known as indefinite delivery vehicles, or IDVs.

In about 50 of those contracts, DOGE counted the full amount as a saving. Some of those contracts also involved money that had already been paid and won’t be recovered even though the contract has been cancelled.

“For the vast majority of these contracts, certainly in the first few years, you don’t spend the whole amount,” said Steve Kelman, a professor of public management at Harvard Kennedy School and the administrator during the Clinton administration of the Office of Federal Procurement Policy, part of the Office of Management and Budget. “And for some of them you never spend the whole amount.”

The DOGE website has made several modifications to the data since it went live earlier this week, wiping nearly US$9.3b from its originally listed savings. Photo / Getty Images

A White House official said that, “in many instances”, such contracts do hit their maximum amount, and since the Government could be liable for the full total, it is appropriate to count up to that limit.

For example, one contract on DOGE’s cancelled list, between the US Agency for International Development and International Development Group, which works on economic development, is listed as saving nearly US$655m.

But that is close to the maximum amount the contract could be worth, split among multiple contractors, and there is no way to know whether the limit would actually have been paid.

The claim also does not take into account millions that have already been obligated to contractors, according to federal records. (USAid has been an early target for DOGE’s cost-cutting efforts and is in the process of being dismantled.)

DOGE also claims to have made “total savings” of more than US$144m by cancelling or renegotiating 97 leases for office space and other real estate used by federal agencies. But the Post’s review found that this claim was inflated.

Sixteen of DOGE’s 20 largest savings on real estate were calculated by assuming that those leases would otherwise have continued for another five years, according to small print on DOGE’s website. But records from the General Services Administration (GSA), which handles government real estate, show that all 20 were already due to expire within the next two years – and most this year. Those 16 leases represented more than US$106m of DOGE’s purported savings on real estate.

Among the four other largest purported savings was US$7.1m for offices used by the Bureau of Labour Statistics in Washington.

Plans to relocate the bureau have been in the works for years, and DOGE’s website said the lease would terminate as of its “original expiration” date of May 14. GSA records confirm the lease was already due to expire then before President Donald Trump entered office. DOGE did not provide further explanation for how it had saved money on the lease. The bureau referred an inquiry to the GSA, which did not respond to a request for comment.

The White House official said savings estimates for leases were based on estimates for what new leases were likely to have cost.

DOGE also said it saved US$2.3m by cancelling a lease for parking space in Manhattan used by officials from the Department of Homeland Security. But in an interview, landlord Gary Spindler told the Post that the department notified him months before Trump took office that it would not be renewing the lease when it expires in April 2026 due to a relocation. Spindler said he had heard nothing from DOGE about terminating it.

“The lease is in full force and effect,” he said.

GSA records confirm the Government is not entitled to terminate the lease before its expiry. The department referred a request for comment to the White House and DOGE.

DOGE also claimed to have saved US$1.3m on another parking lease between the department and Spindler elsewhere in Manhattan. Spindler said his firm had received official notice from the Government that it would not be renewing the lease when it expires in October. But he expects the agency to continue paying until then.

“They can’t just cancel a lease,” Spindler said. “Just like everybody else, they’re obligated.”