Small trade surplus last month

Over the three months ended January dairy exports at 3.8 billion were down 28 per cent on the same period a year earlier.

New Zealand eked out a merchandise trade surplus of $56 million last month, its first since last June, but on an annual basis the deficit widened to $1.4 billion from $1.2 billion for calendar 2014.

Over the three months ended January dairy exports at 3.8 billion were down 28 per cent on the same period a year earlier. The decline reflected lower prices, with the volume of dairy products exported up 2.5 per cent.

Exports of logs fell 12 per cent to $800 million in the latest three months but meat exports were up 24 per cent to $1.6 billion.

On the inbound side, imports of plant and machinery at $2 billion in the latest three months were up 2.2 per cent on the same period a year ago.

Imports of cars rose 2.9 per cent to $1 billion and consumer goods rose 5.7 per cent to $3.1 billion.

The $1 billion of crude oil imported in the past three months, by contrast, was 10 per cent lower than a year ago.

ASB economist Nathan Penny said he expected a largely flat trend in the trade balance over the first half of this year as lower oil prices balanced otherwise growing imports and the last of the falls in dairy export prices.

"Later in 2015, we expect growing import demand, reflecting solid domestic activity, to more than offset recovering dairy export prices and lead to wider trade deficits," Penny said.