NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy

Reserve Bank takes on more cautious stance as clouds appear

Jamie Gray
By Jamie Gray
Business Reporter·NZ Herald·
28 Jun, 2018 03:11 AM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Picture/NZ Herald.

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Picture/NZ Herald.

The Reserve Bank looks to be leaning towards a more "dovish" stance in response to weaker-than-expected growth numbers, economists said.

The decision to leave the rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent was well anticipated by the market, but the tone of Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr's comments nevertheless came as a surprise.

Economists said a rate hike was now a long way off, and that a cut was not completely out of the question.

Orr, in his statement, kept the door open, saying the bank was well-positioned to manage change in either direction – up or down – as necessary.

He said the outlook for the New Zealand economy, as detailed in the bank's May monetary policy statement, remained intact.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"Employment is around its sustainable level and consumer price inflation remains below the 2 percent mid-point of our target, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy for some time to come," he said.

Global economic growth was expected to support demand for New Zealand's products and services.

"Global inflationary pressure is also expected to be higher but remain modest. This outlook has been tempered slightly by trade tensions in some major economies," he said.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"Domestically, ongoing spending and investment, by both households and government, is expected to support growth," he said.

He also noted the ongoing volatility in some emerging market economies.

Orr was quite downbeat on growth, saying recent weaker GDP outturn implied marginally more spare capacity in the economy than the bank had anticipated.

He also said the Government's projected spending "impulse" was also slightly lower and later than anticipated.

Discover more

Business

Gloomy ANZ survey clouds NZ outlook

27 Jun 04:18 AM
Business

Kiwis jailed in the UK over $600k super car fraud

27 Jun 09:17 PM
Business

Bank's heartless act exposed

27 Jun 11:39 PM
Tax

IRD extends deadline for GST filings to 4 July

28 Jun 12:52 AM

CPI inflation was likely to increase in the near term due to higher fuel prices. Beyond that, inflation was expected to gradually rise to within the bank's desired 2 per cent annual target, resulting from capacity pressures, Orr said.

ANZ senior macro strategist Phil Borkin said he viewed the statement as being "marginally more dovish" than the previous one in May.

"The Reserve Bank is acknowledging a few more risks, globally, the deterioration of the domestic growth picture at the margin, and a bit more spare capacity," Borkin said.

Borkin said it looked as if the bank was showing a greater preparedness to act if conditions deteriorated.

He said a rate cut at some point could not be ruled out if the economy deteriorates to a meaningful extent. "But we are not at that point today."

ASB economists said the message from the central bank was that it was "comfortably on hold" but that the risks have been shifting to a later start to the tightening cycle.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The Auckland-based bank now expects the tightening cycle to start in November 2019 from its previous forecast of a hike in August of that year.

"We also see growing risk that the next move may be a cut, rather than a hike," ASB said.

The Reserve Bank, in its statement, said the best contribution it could make to maximising sustainable employment, and maintaining low and stable inflation, was to ensure the OCR is at an expansionary level "for a considerable period".

Today's statement follows ANZ's business confidence survey for June, which suggested a further slowdown in the economy was in store.

Data out earlier this month showed the rate of growth slowed a little in the March quarter to 0.5 per cent from a 0.6 per cent increase in each of the previous two quarters.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said he was surprised that the central bank looked to be less bullish about economic growth.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Stephens noted the Reserve Bank had assessed the Government's May Budget as less stimulatory than previous forecasts. "We disagree with that," he said.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Economy

Business|economy

Big four power firms near deal to secure Huntly's backup role

18 Jun 10:57 PM
GDPUpdated

Stronger than expected GDP signals no rate cuts in July

18 Jun 10:47 PM
Premium
Economy

Liam Dann: 'Brick wall' – why tomorrow’s GDP data won’t tell the real story

18 Jun 05:17 AM

Jono and Ben brew up a tea-fuelled adventure in Sri Lanka

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Economy

Big four power firms near deal to secure Huntly's backup role

Big four power firms near deal to secure Huntly's backup role

18 Jun 10:57 PM

New Zealand's big power generators want to support back-up power at Huntly.

Stronger than expected GDP signals no rate cuts in July

Stronger than expected GDP signals no rate cuts in July

18 Jun 10:47 PM
Premium
Liam Dann: 'Brick wall' – why tomorrow’s GDP data won’t tell the real story

Liam Dann: 'Brick wall' – why tomorrow’s GDP data won’t tell the real story

18 Jun 05:17 AM
Premium
Kiwi dollar rises 7.5% as US dollar wanes under global shifts

Kiwi dollar rises 7.5% as US dollar wanes under global shifts

18 Jun 03:59 AM
Help for those helping hardest-hit
sponsored

Help for those helping hardest-hit

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP