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Home / Business / Economy / Official Cash Rate

Trade deficit slips down on oil

Brian Fallow
By Brian Fallow
Columnist·
26 Mar, 2007 05:00 PM2 mins to read

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KEY POINTS:

Imports exceeded exports by $127 million last month, the smallest trade deficit for nine months but only because of an unusually small inflow of oil.

It meant the country pulled in $104.50 of imports for every $100 of exports.

Normally February is a month when a trade surplus
is recorded. Over the past 20 years February has been a deficit month only five times, four of them in the past five years, Statistics New Zealand said.

Exports at $2.85 billion were 9.7 per cent higher than in February last year.

But export commodity prices, as measured by ANZ's index, are 11.9 per cent higher than a year ago in New Zealand dollar terms, suggesting the growth in export volumes is weak.

The biggest contributor was a 31 per cent increase, to $601 million, in dairy exports, which outstripped a 27 per cent increase in dairy prices over the same period.

Imports at $2.97 billion were only 0.1 per cent higher than in February 2006, partly because this time there were no big-ticket imports of aircraft but also because oil imports were 40 per cent lower in volume terms than a year ago.

Goldman Sachs JB Were economist Shamubeel Eaqub said the "core" trade deficit - excluding volatile oil imports - had been on a widening trend since late last year.

For the Reserve Bank, which is looking for signs of a slowdown in consumer spending, the news that imports of consumer goods were 13.6 per cent higher than in February last year will be unwelcome.

"Car imports are similarly up 7.7 per cent from a year ago," ANZ National Bank chief economist Cameron Bagrie said.

Given the high dollar and the generally downward movement in prices for consumer goods, such figures implied reasonably strong import volumes, he said.

"While the annual trade deficit at $5.78 billion is the lowest since September 2005 ... further improvement will be slow and gradual."

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