NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy / Official Cash Rate

Liam Dann: Rates cut no mystery - Wheeler

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
13 Mar, 2016 07:29 PM5 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

I'm late for my meeting with Graeme Wheeler and I'm running down Victoria St in my suit like some idiot in a terrible menswear ad. Illustration / Rod Emmerson

I'm late for my meeting with Graeme Wheeler and I'm running down Victoria St in my suit like some idiot in a terrible menswear ad. Illustration / Rod Emmerson

Liam Dann
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
Learn more

It's Friday morning, the day after the Reserve Bank Governor's bombshell rate cut and I've muddled my diary.

I'm late for my meeting with Graeme Wheeler and I'm running down Victoria St in my suit like some idiot in a terrible menswear ad.

I was already nervous about how he'd take our front-page caricature - the governor in Speedos leaping "bomb" style into a paddling pool.

A few minutes later, up in the Reserve Bank's modest Auckland office, it becomes clear I needn't have worried.

Wheeler is relaxed and unhurried. He hasn't seen the cartoon. And while he's gets the gag about making a big splash he professes surprise at the surprise about the cut. He can't see the "mystery" and wants to explain.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

But first, by way of a timely example, he wants to show me just how easy it is for central bank communication to misfire.

We wander through through to a Bloomberg terminal where a helpful staffer pulls up a graph for the euro and the governor explains what has just unfolded in Frankfurt.

Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, has unleashed a "big bazooka" of stimulatory policies. But it has all gone terribly wrong.

The ECB package boosted its money-printing programme by 20 billion ($33.038 billion) a month. Draghi also cut its main interest rate to zero and lowered the deposit rate deeper into negative territory. The ECB is now effectively charging banks more to hold deposits with it.

The move had the desired effect, the euro plunged US2c to US$1.08. But less than two hours later it had rebounded, regaining all the ground and surging to a new peak at US$1.12.

Discover more

Opinion

Liam Dann: How to prepare our kids for jobs that don't exist (yet)

29 Mar 02:17 AM
Agribusiness

Liam Dann: Rising kiwi is trouble for us all

03 Apr 08:00 AM

One line at the post-announcement press conference did all the damage. Asked by a journalist whether there were further rate cuts to come, Draghi answered honestly that he didn't think so.

Suddenly markets only cared about that.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

All that work and preparation unwound in minutes.

Investec chief economist Philip Shaw described the ECB president as having "shot down his own bazooka".

You can see that Wheeler, who knows Draghi personally, can really feel his pain.

Certainly he's had his own New Zealand-sized slice of it to deal with recently as economists and commentators have berated him for what they perceive as a lack of focus on inflation - currently tracking well below the 2 per cent average the Reserve Bank is supposed to target.

Following Thursday's OCR cut (to 2.25 per cent) there was relief in the commentary - but also surprise, given the governor's supposed aversion to cuts.

Wheeler wants to address this idea that he and his team are unconcerned about low inflation.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Rightly or wrongly the perception was reinforced by a speech he gave in Christchurch on February 3.

"That speech was very much aimed at responding to people who say headline inflation is low, you're failing in respect of the PTA (Policy Targets Agreement) so you need to cut rates. It's all very mechanistic, it's all very simple," he says.

"I wanted to explain why headline inflation is low and what's happening to inflation pressures in the economy and also that what's happening in New Zealand is happening in much of the rest of world."

The PTA might be short but it's quite complex with very specific language, he says.

"Some of that language was put in as a result of explicit discussions between Bill English and myself just prior to my term," Wheeler says.

The PTA, he says, talks about keeping inflation in the 1 to 3 per cent band, it talks about what causes inflation to move outside the band, it talks about the timelines and the average target over time.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

It also talks about the bank looking at asset markets, financial stability issues and volatility in respect of exchange rates, output and interest rates.

"In other words it is not just a simple little formula that says: headline inflation is low, cut rates."

The speech also made it clear there were some big risks, he points out.

"You've seen [since then] more market volatility, a reduction in forecasts for international growth, you've seen the OECD reduce its forecasts and I think it's likely that the IMF will reduce its forecasts in April, you've seen some dairy auctions that were weak, you've seen house prices in Auckland (albeit early days) and you've seen surveys that showed a fall in inflation expectations.

"All of this was on top of the January statement which indicated some further easing may be required.

"I don't think it's a mystery that the Reserve Bank cut interest rates. In fact, we have 13 people who give advice to the governing committee who make these decisions and the advice from the 13 was unanimous."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

In other words, as rate decisions go, this wasn't even a line-ball call.

Wheeler says he enjoys much of the commentary about the Reserve Bank. He cites an article he read about his post-rate cut press conference.

"It was very witty and I enjoyed it."

But the bank also has to tailor its communication for economists and investors in the United States and Europe who have huge power to shift our currency and effect our markets, he says.

"When I answer questions I'm talking largely to them," he says.

You get a sense Wheeler enjoys lively debate and would love to engage more in the local discussion. The fact the February speech was misinterpreted clearly worries him. But he is acutely aware of the broader responsibilities of his role. Finding the perfect balance is difficult, as his European colleague would no doubt confirm.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Watch: The Economy Hub on Wheeler's OCR cut:

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Official Cash Rate

Premium
Official Cash Rate

Reserve Bank blocks media from talk by OCR committee member Prasanna Gai

15 Jun 08:32 PM
Interest rates

Final big bank drops home loan rates after OCR cut

12 Jun 05:52 AM
Premium
Opinion

Jenée Tibshraeny: RBNZ's lack of transparency erodes its credibility

11 Jun 09:00 PM

Jono and Ben brew up a tea-fuelled adventure in Sri Lanka

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Official Cash Rate

Premium
Reserve Bank blocks media from talk by OCR committee member Prasanna Gai

Reserve Bank blocks media from talk by OCR committee member Prasanna Gai

15 Jun 08:32 PM

The Reserve Bank says no new information was disclosed in the speech.

Final big bank drops home loan rates after OCR cut

Final big bank drops home loan rates after OCR cut

12 Jun 05:52 AM
Premium
Jenée Tibshraeny: RBNZ's lack of transparency erodes its credibility

Jenée Tibshraeny: RBNZ's lack of transparency erodes its credibility

11 Jun 09:00 PM
Internal documents reveal why Adrian Orr resigned as Reserve Bank Governor

Internal documents reveal why Adrian Orr resigned as Reserve Bank Governor

10 Jun 11:16 PM
Help for those helping hardest-hit
sponsored

Help for those helping hardest-hit

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP