Mood of the Boardroom: Views on the global picture

Don Brash. Photo / Doug Sherring

DON BRASH
Former Reserve Bank Governor and National Party leader

Don Brash sees two big risks to the international economy.

"One is the serious fiscal positions of a number of developed countries - not just Greece, Portugal or Spain but also Britain, the United States and Japan - all of whom have massive accumulated debt and massive ongoing fiscal deficits."

This could lead to "enormous" bond issuance in these markets, driving up interest rates.

As well as slowing their economies, it also poses a risk to New Zealand whose extremely high level of external debt leaves it very reliant on offshore credit markets, Brash says.

"We got through he last crisis because the Australian banks kept their strong credit rating and were helped for a brief period by the Government guarantee. But New Zealand is very heavily dependent on those credit markets."

Alternatively, debt-laden developed countries will make serious attempts to cut back their deficits.

"That would have a similarly negative effect on economic growth and recovery.

The other big risk is China's property bubble, Brash says.

"China has obviously been of enormous value to New Zealand and Australia, and indeed the world, in the past year or two.

"But it is very hard indeed to avoid the worry that a sudden implosion of their property bubble would have very severe consequences. And that they have a property bubble is now beyond any question," he says.

"An additional macro risk is that the appreciation of the yuan may be seen as so timid that they risk a political backlash in the United States with protectionist measures adopted which would be incredibly damaging."

RUTH RICHARDSON
Former National Government Finance Minister

For Ruth Richardson the fierce headwinds buffeting European and America business players could be ill winds that blow this part of the world some good.

"Ironically, economies mired in state debt, a failure of political will to reform and a high global fear factor play into the hand of safe countries like New Zealand and Australia, which increasingly can become magnets for high-end global talent," she says.

"New Zealand and Australia, so long as we can continue to work on our policy settings, can offer the multiple attractions of competitive tax rates, a climate conducive to innovation and a lifestyle full of affordable opportunities for families, fitness and fun.

"For those who put a premium on freedom from terror and sound institutions, we are a haven."