NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy / Official Cash Rate

Brian Fallow: House-price boom leaves a toxic legacy

Brian Fallow
By Brian Fallow
Columnist·NZ Herald·
8 Aug, 2012 05:30 PM6 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

The last property-price spike has meant a deterioration in housing affordability. Photo / Richard Robinson.

The last property-price spike has meant a deterioration in housing affordability. Photo / Richard Robinson.

Brian Fallow
Opinion by Brian Fallow
Brian Fallow is a former economics editor of The New Zealand Herald
Learn more

House prices are overvalued, the Reserve Bank says.

"They are certainly well above historical levels and look expensive by international standards relative to incomes or rents," governor Alan Bollard said in a speech to the Employers and Manufacturers Association on Monday.

A repeat of the house-price boom of the last decade seemed unlikely, he said, "but would be very damaging and risky were it to occur."

He did not elaborate on why he believes another boom is unlikely.

The reason may be that the starting point is house prices which are already dispiritingly high.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Because the 2000s boom was not followed by a bust, traditional valuation metrics like the ratio of house prices to income, household debt to income and rental yields are still very stretched by historical standards.

Or it may be that Bollard believes there has been a fundamental and enduring shift in New Zealanders' attitudes towards debt.

"For decades it has seemed attractive for households to borrow - first as a hedge against a couple of decades of high inflation and more recently as real house prices rose more dramatically than at any time in our history. High inflation is a thing of the past. And a repeat of the house price boom ... seems unlikely."

But house prices are rising again, not least in Auckland.

And there is wisdom in the saying that the four most expensive words in the English language are: "This time is different."

Discover more

Opinion

Brian Fallow: ETS changes will depress carbon market

11 Jul 09:30 PM
Opinion

Brian Fallow: 1pc inflation rate in unfamiliar territory

18 Jul 09:30 PM
Opinion

Brian Fallow: Tiny sea-power spend ignores potential

25 Jul 09:30 PM
Opinion

Brian Fallow: Monetary policy still carrying the burden

25 Jul 10:15 PM

Indeed most of Bollard's speech was a reflection on the toxic legacy of the last boom, in the form of the build-up of household and foreign debt.

Experience, like that of Sweden in the 1990s, suggested that the aftermath of a debt and asset price boom need not materially hold back a country's economic performance for long, he said.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"But this time it is looking as if the accumulated debt is, in fact, acting as quite a sustained drag, in New Zealand and other advanced economies."

We have not had a swift recovery, a period of above average growth to lift per capita output back to trend, that is, where it would have been if the long-term growth rate had continued uninterrupted.

Three years after the economy stopped contracting, per capita gross domestic product is still 3 per cent below its peak in December 2007.

And it is about 10 per cent below where it should have been by now if the trend growth rate of the 12 years before the recession had continued.

It is an environment where those with a lot of debt have been motivated to whittle it down as best they can, while those (typically older) with little or no debt are motivated to save more, if only because low deposit interest rates and expected asset returns more generally make building up an adequate retirement nest egg harder.

Another part of the toxic legacy of the last boom has been a deterioration in housing affordability.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Underpinning that has been supply-side dysfunction at the lower end of market, that is, a dearth of construction of small starter homes.

Westpac's economists point out that with an average of around 2.5 people per household, if a city is not adding one new dwelling to its housing stock for every 2.5 people its population is growing by, it is under-building.

In the three years to June last year Auckland's population grew by seven for every new dwelling built.

More recently there are signs of a response from the building sector to that pent-up demand.

In the latest June year there has been a rise of 24 per cent in the number of dwelling consents issued in Auckland.

But at an average value of $311,000 - and remember this is the cost of the building, not the land - they are clearly not starter homes.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

This continues a longstanding trend towards construction skewed to the upper end of the market.

Research by two Treasury economists, David Law and Lisa Meehan, based on surveys of household finances illuminates some of the distributional consequences (economist speak for winners and losers).

Between 2004 and 2008 in all regions lower quartile houses rose in value faster than upper quartile ones.

For the country as a whole a lower quartile house (that is, one a quarter of the way up from the bottom when they are ranked by value) rose 63 per cent over those four years, while at the upper quartile (a quarter of the way down from the top) the increase was 47 per cent.

Possible reasons they suggest are tax and the cost of land.

"With various tax incentives on rental properties more pronounced in the 2000s than they are now, and rental property typically being toward the lower end of the quality spectrum, this may have stimulated demand more at the bottom end of the distribution."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

And high section prices encourage the building of larger, higher-specification houses upon them.

Unsurprisingly their analysis of the survey data found that housing affordability increases significantly with incomes, particularly for couples.

People are more likely to be able to afford a home of their own if they are middle-aged, have a partner, or live somewhere other than Auckland.

"The likelihood is reduced as interest rates rise, [or] if an individual is any ethnicity other than European or is female."

Looking forward, the BNZ-REINZ survey of real estate agents found last month a record net 28 per cent of them reporting more property investors in the market.

And a high net 44 per cent of agents report more first-home buyers in the market. This is a response to mortgage rates being at 50-year lows.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

But they are not likely to stay that low indefinitely, or if they do it will be because the world economy is in deep, deep trouble.

Someone who thinks "I can just about afford a mortgage at these rates" needs to reflect on this simple arithmetical fact: If floating mortgage rates were to rise by 2 percentage points - which is hardly beyond the bounds of possibility - that would increase their interest bill by more than a third.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Official Cash Rate

Premium
Opinion

Liam Dann: The upside to this painfully slow economic recovery

21 Jun 05:00 PM
Premium
Official Cash Rate

Reserve Bank blocks media from talk by OCR committee member Prasanna Gai

15 Jun 08:32 PM
Interest rates

Final big bank drops home loan rates after OCR cut

12 Jun 05:52 AM

Jono and Ben brew up a tea-fuelled adventure in Sri Lanka

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Official Cash Rate

Premium
Liam Dann: The upside to this painfully slow economic recovery

Liam Dann: The upside to this painfully slow economic recovery

21 Jun 05:00 PM

This recovery is making us sweat, but that might be a good thing in the long run.

Premium
Reserve Bank blocks media from talk by OCR committee member Prasanna Gai

Reserve Bank blocks media from talk by OCR committee member Prasanna Gai

15 Jun 08:32 PM
Final big bank drops home loan rates after OCR cut

Final big bank drops home loan rates after OCR cut

12 Jun 05:52 AM
Premium
Jenée Tibshraeny: RBNZ's lack of transparency erodes its credibility

Jenée Tibshraeny: RBNZ's lack of transparency erodes its credibility

11 Jun 09:00 PM
Help for those helping hardest-hit
sponsored

Help for those helping hardest-hit

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP