El Nino typically increases the likelihood of drought in the east of New Zealand. Photo / NZME.
The El Nino weather pattern that meteorological forecasters are predicting this year is likely to reduce New Zealand's agricultural output, say Bank of New Zealand economists.
Historic data compiled by BNZ suggests a correlation between New Zealand's agricultural growth and the Southern Oscillation Index, a standardised index of sea-level pressure
differences between Tahiti and Darwin that is used to determine whether El Nino or La Nina is present.
The index fell below 15 this month, a level that indicates the coming of El Nino. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed the Pacific Ocean has officially entered into an El Nino pattern that has a 70 per cent chance to last through the southern winter and spring.
El Nino typically increases the likelihood of drought in the east of New Zealand as a result of the strong, frequent winds it brings from the west and southwest, BNZ said.
Coinciding with that in the past was the rise of livestock slaughter as dry conditions put pressure on the supply of feed.
