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Home / Business / Economy

Migrant inflow grows to a trickle

Brian Fallow
By Brian Fallow
Columnist·NZ Herald·
21 Apr, 2008 05:00 PM2 mins to read

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The country gained 490 people last month, up from 240 in February. Photo / Alan Gibson

The country gained 490 people last month, up from 240 in February. Photo / Alan Gibson

KEY POINTS:

The net inflow of migrants, which had all but dried up by last December, continued to recover last month but only to less than half the long-run average rate.

Adjusted for seasonal effects the country gained 490 people (1000 unadjusted) in March, up from 240 in February and
a mere 30 in December.

For the year ended March the net gain of permanent and long-term migrants was 4700, compared with 12,100 the year before and an average of 11,800 over the past 17 years.

Permanent and long-term migrants are those who say on their airport arrival departure forms that they intend to stay, or to remain overseas, for at least a year.

The net loss of migrants to Australia was 29,000, up 28 per cent on the previous March year and the highest net outflow since year to July 2001. The net loss was mainly (63 per cent) among those aged under 30.

That was offset by net gains from Britain (6900), India (4200), the Philippines (3300), Fiji (2500), South Africa (21000) and China (1900).

Goldman Sachs JBWere economist Shamubeel Eaqub said the recent improvement in the net migration numbers was largely due to an easing in emigration.

"But it remains at a soft level and provides little offset to the falling housing market," he said.

Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs said the relatively weak migration trend added to the negative factors already weighing on the housing market.

"The projections underpinning the Reserve Bank's March monetary policy statement assume that annual net arrivals gradually increase from current levels to around 10,000 in early 2011."

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