How Christopher Luxon’s patience paid off and got India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi on side - Fran O’Sullivan

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) and his New Zealand counterpart Christopher Luxon have established a strong rapport.

THREE KEY FACTS

• Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has promised to reach a free trade agreement with India in his first term in government.
• Luxon and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had their first in-person meeting at the East Asia Summit in Laos last October.
• New Zealand’s lead trade negotiator had 14 meetings with the Indian trade negotiators before the FTA announcement.

Timing is everything. And Christopher Luxon couldn’t have orchestrated a better start to his recent mission to India.

In truth, superb groundwork by Trade Minister Todd McClay and New Zealand’s lead trade negotiator Vangelis Vitalis set the scene for the announcement that free trade negotiations were on – even as Luxon arrived in Delhi at the start of his recent mission.

But Luxon’s own patient, studious research of just what makes Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi tick was also crucial – first to getting a date for his India mission and second to setting the political environment such as both sides were in open agreement in Delhi that a fast conclusion to the talks (complete with an FTA) was a joint goal.

Luxon clearly had his own swagger back while in Delhi and Mumbai.

Swagger is a national characteristic in today’s India.

It’s also a quality that former PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi, an Indian-born American herself, coached New Zealand CEOs to adopt in a session in New York in late 2022.

Revert to 2024. Expectations were the Indian mission would happen that year.

As usual with prime ministerial official visits, key political news media are notified well in advance on the likely schedule for offshore missions.

This helps with planning and in an environment where news budgets are tight this also helps to guide decisions on where to allocate funds and just who gets to cover the trips.

Same too with the key businesses that the New Zealand Prime Minister and his advisers want to join him, to add commercial ballast and support, which is important when viewed through the eyes of host Governments such as India.

Prospective timings came and went.

The Indian elections were not clear-cut. Modi had a major offshore agenda of his own: Bric (Brazil, Russia, India and China) meetings; G20; the US and more. Diaries were cleared. Plans came and went.

The formal invitation was slow to come.

This is where Luxon’s studious side came to the fore.

He wanted to know what made Modi tick before their first in-person meeting at the East Asia Summit in Laos last October.

What the PM did was listen to The Economist’s podcast series – the Modi Raj.

It’s not the only study that Luxon did before Laos. But the eight-part series would have given him a stellar grounding on the impact of just where Modi is taking India, the man himself (he was denied a diplomatic passport to the US earlier in his political career), challenges he personally faces leading such a diverse nation and the major trends that are transforming the country: the unprecedented youth bulge, technology and innovation.

When Luxon emerged from what reporters described as his coveted meeting wielding an official invite to New Delhi, they noted there was little indication of progress towards a promised free trade deal.

That’s where patience comes in.

Since taking on the trade portfolio, McClay has been to India multiple times to meet with his counterpart. They’ve also met at international forums.

For his part, Vitalis had already had 14 meetings with the Indian trade negotiators before the big announcement.

This is what underlies the confidence that a relatively quick deal is possible – parameters are understood.

Segue here.

On Luxon’s missions it’s not long before he releases his inner Tigger.

He is bouncy, energetic, and cheerful just like the tiger character from the Winnie-the-Pooh stories.

And irrepressible as he urges CEOs to “execute, execute, execute” and chimes it’s all about “growth, growth, growth”.

Particularly in India which (over time) presents New Zealand businesses with the opportunity to market into a fast-growing middle class.

Luxon’s been there before. India was on his schedule when he was a Unilever executive.

While Air New Zealand CEO he also took part in several of Sir John Key’s missions.

Key was also tourism minister and the pair pitched New Zealand as a tourism destination at a time when China was just opening the doors for its own people to go to approved destinations. He understands the play.

When it comes to his own key performance indicators he has established a strong PM-to-PM rapport with Modi; he demonstrated a strategic approach to engagement, the need to foster business ties and convert marketing opportunities to actual sales.

His speech to the Raisina dialogue was strong – those watching from the business delegation were impressed. He showed a deep understanding of India’s economic potential and, importantly, obvious respect and affection for Modi.

It will be important to align New Zealand’s interests with India’s objectives and that may cause internal political friction.

By conventional parameters, the visit was more than successful. As with the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, there was much local reportage on the “personal chemistry” between Modi and Luxon.

Cricket was the other bond.

It felt like “a wave starting” was how NZTE CEO Peter Chrisp summed up the mission. He is right.