Global warming leaves Russian cold

Andrey Illarionov. Picture / Mark Mitchell

Russia will reconsider its membership of the Kyoto club in five or six years, when it threatens to hobble the country's economic progress, says a visiting adviser to President Vladimir Putin.

Dr Andrey Illarionov, an economic adviser to the President since 2000, caused widespread consternation among advocates of the Kyoto Protocol a year ago for his outspoken opposition to the climate change treaty.

Russia did ratify the treaty in October, adding the support necessary for it to come into force.

But during a short visit to New Zealand, Illarionov said the decision was an exercise in short-term political pragmatism.

"The European Union wanted very much the Kyoto Protocol to be in place," he said.

"It was a friendly step on our part which would not impose an immediate cost, because we will not exceed our quota for five or six years.'

Russia appreciated that the EU had removed some obstacles to its membership of the World Trade Organisation.

Under the Kyoto agreement Russia, like New Zealand, undertakes that its net emissions of the greenhouse gases believed to cause global warming will on average over the period 2008 to 2012 be no greater than they were in 1990.

With the implosion of the Soviet economy since then many Russian smokestacks have gone cold and its emissions have dropped accordingly.

For that reason it is widely expected Russia will be the dominant seller of surplus carbon credits.

But this was not so, said Illarionov.

"Russian emissions are currently at 25 per cent below the target 1990 level.

"Assuming our economic growth maintains the rate we have been able to sustain for the last six years - 6.5 per cent per annum - it means that within five or six years we will reach that level," he said.

"Because the commitment for the first commitment period is an average over the five years we will slightly exceed the target set by the protocol. So we will not be able to sell anything."

As soon as Russia came close to its limit the Government would come back to the issue and make a decision according to the national interest.

"That is an exact quote from the official statement from the Russian authorities, the Parliament, when they ratified the Kyoto Protocol."

Illarionov remains an ardent opponent of Kyoto - the "death treaty" he calls it.

Its quotas smack to him of Soviet-style central planning. Illarionov also questioned the utility of an agreement which covered a quarter of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.

"According to the International Energy Agency global emissions will double within the next 20 years even with the Kyoto Protocol.

"So that is why all these attempts to reduce emissions by 5 per cent or 6 per cent, in the face of the growing economies and emissions of other countries, are just ridiculous."

He is also sceptical of the treaty's scientific underpinnings.

"Climate change is real but it is the result of natural variability."

And with a twinkle in his eye he suggested asking New Zealand voters at the next election if they would not prefer a higher temperature?