Opinion: Financially wounded businesses now facing the 'big sick'

Shoppers may be scarce and Omicron threatens to keep staff off work. Photo / Sylvie Whinray

OPINION:

News 15 Air New Zealand flight crew have been stood down because just one colleague tested positive for Omicron is ominous.

Schedule changes and cancellations are expected over the coming weeks due to staff absences.

Two years since Covid-19 emerged businesses are being warned they face what could turn out to the toughest phase of the pandemic for them.

Business NZ's Kirk Hope says the "big sick" is about to hit. Because of the more infectious nature of the Omicron variant, many people will need to take time away from their jobs to isolate and recover.

Under current settings if you're unwell, you must stay home and get a test.
If you are required to isolate you will need to isolate for 14 days if you are a case, and 10 days if you are a close contact.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says that as case numbers grow the approach to testing and isolation will change.

Overseas hospitals and other workplaces have been forced to relax isolation rules as patient safety and essential supplies were put at risk.

Here, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says he hasn't had any advice on the proportion of the workforce that could be off sick due to Omicron but understood it would be ''significant''.

Throughout the pandemic what happens in Australia happens here in some form, about six weeks later.

The Business Herald's Australia correspondent Christopher Niesche paints a grim picture.

''Omicron has cut a swathe through Australian businesses as staff contract the variant and have to stay away or are close contacts of those with the virus. ''

Restaurants don't have enough waiters and cooks to serve any more than a handful of diners; logistics companies don't have enough storeroom staff and drivers to get their goods out to shops; and retailers can't find sales assistants.

This adds up to empty shelves and agitated consumers.

And there are further parallels.

Across the Tasman the effect on businesses is worse than in the midst of the extensive lockdowns of 2020 and 2021. At least during lockdown, businesses were receiving finance support from the government to keep afloat, as happened here.

The hard-hit hospitality sector here is already calling for new financial support amid more restaurant closures but Robertson promised nothing that hadn't been signalled.

Businesses and the self-employed would be able to access existing support, including the $359 per week per worker Short-Term Absence payments and Leave Support Scheme ($600 per week for full timers, $359 per week for part-timers), and that Inland Revenue, at the IRD Commissioner's discretion, would continue to offer leeway to businesses hit by the pandemic.

Last August's lockdown following the Delta outbreak in Auckland - due a border failure at the time the Government had failed to vaccinate 80 per cent of those eligible in the city - drained the public finances of at least $5 billion.

Robertson says there's about $4b left in the Covid response fund and the shift to the red setting will cost about $200m a week.

Businesses face roaring inflation, climbing interest rates and are already facing acute labour shortages in many areas.

They've been spared blunt force lockdowns but the threat of the ''big sick'' means it's not getting any easier for firms that employ thousands like Air New Zealand or those with just a handful of staff. Fallout from Omicron threatens them all.