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Home / Business / Economy / Employment

Auckland powerhouse of recovery

Brian Fallow
By Brian Fallow
Columnist·NZ Herald·
4 Aug, 2011 05:30 PM4 mins to read

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Auckland's unemployment rate has dropped from 8.7 per cent to 7.3 per cent. Photo / NZ Herald

Auckland's unemployment rate has dropped from 8.7 per cent to 7.3 per cent. Photo / NZ Herald

Auckland is leading the recovery in the labour market, accounting for four out of five of the net 43,000 jobs created nationwide in the year ended June.

The Auckland region's unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 8.7 per cent in June last year to 7.3 per cent, though that is still well above the national rate of 6.4 per cent (on a seasonally unadjusted basis).

However just over half of the national increase in employment over the past year was among the self-employed. The number of self-employed people rose 23,000 to 247,000, its highest level for three years and its third highest level ever.

Given the failure rate among new businesses, it calls into question the durability of some of the past year's employment growth, compared with hiring by established firms.

The number of wage or salary earners rose 20,000 or 1.1 per cent over the same period.

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Compared with the March quarter, the labour market went sideways.

The unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) was unchanged at 6.5 per cent, in line with its average over the past two years.

The number of unemployed people was also unchanged at 154,000 while the number of people employed increased by just 1000 to 2,214,000.

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Economists saw the nationwide results as encouraging, however, considering the June quarter was the first to reflect the full impact of the Christchurch earthquake on February 22.

Employment in Christchurch was 7000 lower than in the June quarter last year. ASB economist Jane Turner estimates that on a seasonally adjusted basis it was down 3.2 per cent on the March quarter, which in turn was 1.5 per cent down on December last year.

"Outside of Christchurch, the employment result was impressive, recording 0.6 per cent growth in employment on top of the previous quarter's outsized gain of 1.8 per cent," Turner said.

"The result confirms the strength in business confidence is translating into real activity, and suggests that economic growth has maintained momentum over the second quarter. In addition, hours worked increased 1.6 per cent on a nationwide basis. This is another firm sign of improving employment demand."

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On the other hand the latest quarter's unemployment rate is flattered by a decline in the labour force participation rate.

The working age population grew by 15,000 over the quarter but the labour force - those either working or looking for work - increased by just 1000. That matched the increase in employment and kept unemployment steady. Infometrics economist Matt Nolan noted than when part-timers who want to work more hours are included, the "underemployment rate" is 11.2 per cent, its highest for a year.

Full-time employment increased 0.2 per cent in the quarter, its smallest increase since December 2009.

The Bank of New Zealand's head of research, Stephen Toplis, said that nationwide employment had grown 2 per cent over the past year, or 3 per cent excluding Christchurch.

Over the same period he estimates the economy expanded just 1.4 per cent.

"It is almost certain that GDP growth will accelerate from this pace, even if you take a gloomy view on the global economy, so the demand for labour will likewise accelerate."

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The problem would lie on the supply side of the market.

"In the year to June the working age population grew only 1.2 per cent. Given current net migration outflows, this growth is likely to wilt further. As a consequence, only modest employment growth will result in a significant drop in the unemployment rate," Toplis said.

"Importantly, this is the level below which the Reserve Bank perceives inflationary pressures become significant and is yet another argument why it is likely interest rates will rise aggressively next year."

Toplis noted that if the 15 to 19-year-old age group is excluded, the unemployment rate is already 5 per cent.

"This is its lowest level since September 2009 and again suggests that skills shortages may become more problematic than the headline unemployment rate would suggest."

In the past year the construction industry shed 12,700 jobs, 7 per cent of its workforce.

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ON THE JOB

6.4pc National unemployment rate

247,000 Self-employed people

7.3pc Auckland's unemployment rate

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