Editorial: Time for economy to take its medicine as inflation rises

Interest rates are on the rise. Photo / 123rf, File

Editorial

EDITORIAL

While all eyes are on Omicron infection rates right now, other figures are also set to change our lives - interest rates.

The official cash rate will almost certainly be lifted again next Wednesday when the Reserve Bank delivers its first Monetary Policy Statement for 2022.

That should come as no surprise to most readers. The hype around inflation and interest rates has been building for a year.

We're almost certain to see the rate rise by 0.25 per cent - from its current levels of 0.75 per cent - to 1 per cent.

However current market pricing suggests 30 per cent odds that the Reserve Bank will opt for a double hit - taking the rate straight up to 1.25 per cent.

That would come as a shock to some - particularly those most exposed with high levels of mortgage or business debt.

What may be even more interesting is the RBNZ's forecast for how far it expects to lift rates in this current cycle.

Based on the RBNZ's last statement in November, we should expect as many as seven rate hikes taking the official cash rate (OCR) to 2.5 per cent by the middle of next year.

But those forecasts were based on expectations that inflation would peak at 5.7 per cent in the first quarter this year, falling back into its target range between 1 and 3 per cent over the next couple of years.

It now looks to be much worse.

Unfortunately, the arrival of Omicron compounded global inflation pressures. Locally, consumer price inflation hit 5.9 per cent in December. In the US, it is now at a 40-year high above 7 per cent.

So we may see a more aggressive rate track from the RBNZ next Wednesday.

The big question is, how much monetary policy pressure can the economy handle before it stops growing?

Lifting rates to stamp out inflation works to a point but that comes with the risk of pushing the economy into recession. There are already signs that the housing market is cooling.

When we talk about the days of high interest rates we tend to think of the time before the Global Financial Crisis - the OCR went to above 8 per cent, and mortgage rates above 10 per cent.

It is hard to see them rising that far this time - debt levels are too high and mortgages are too big now.

But the official cash rate has been as high as 3.5 per cent as recently as 2015.

That's more than four times its current level. At current retail margins, it could push mortgage rates up to around 7 per cent.

New Zealanders - and the rest of the world for that matter - have become accustomed to functioning in a low interest rate environment, where borrowing is cheap and relatively easy.

It was never normal - though that is easy to forget.

Hopefully, the RBNZ can negotiate a slow, measured pathway back to levels that are more historically normal - and keep inflation in check.

It won't be easy and it won't be painless.