Cup lights up outlook for consumers

The opening of the Rugby World Cup has boosted consumer confidence in the economic recovery for the year ahead, according to a recent survey. Photo / Steven McNicholl

Buoyed by the Rugby World Cup, consumer confidence has held up in the quarterly Westpac McDermott Miller survey.

The index was unchanged at 112, the level to which it rebounded in the June survey from its post-quake plunge in March. Any level above 100 indicates more optimists than pessimists.

Westpac economist Felix Delbruck said consumers remained cautious about their personal situation.

They were becoming more confident in an economic recovery over the year ahead, but less optimistic about longer-term economic prospects.

The World Cup seems to have lifted respondents' views of the economy over the next 12 months, with a net 2 per cent expecting it to get worse compared with a net 7 per cent pessimistic in the previous survey.

In the main centres, 14 per cent cited tourism or major events attracting tourists as their reason for expecting good times in the near term.

The World Cup might also explain why optimism was strongest among 18 to 29-year-olds, a sharp turnaround from the June survey when a net 10 per cent of them expected bad times, Delbruck said.

Overall, the survey was encouraging in view of recent data suggesting momentum in spending may be waning, like August's drop in electronic card transactions and slowing house sales over the past few months.

A net 19 per cent said their own financial situation had deteriorated over the past year, up from 18 per cent in the previous survey.

However a net 30 per cent consider it a good time to buy a major household item, up from 26 per cent in June.

"It possibly reflects the ongoing strength of the New Zealand dollar and low interest rates, which are pushing down the cost of buying those items."

Views of the longer-term outlook for the economy have deteriorated. A net 41 per cent still expect better times over the next five years, but that is down from a net 50 per cent in June.

That might reflect global concerns, or that some of the longer-term costs of the Christchurch earthquakes, such as higher insurance premiums and the hit to the Government's finances, had started to sink in, Delbruck said.

But the level of confidence remained a lot higher than in the period leading up to the global financial crisis.