Early ratification of climate deal risky, says National

By BRIAN FALLOW

A majority of the foreign affairs select committee supports early ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, but the National Party minority believes the risks outweigh the benefits.

National's agriculture spokesman, Gavan Herlihy, said that because it was such a major issue, with implications which could span changes of government, it would have been much better to have a unanimous view.

"It is incredible that the Government is prepared to adopt such a significant policy without conducting a comprehensive analysis of the costs and benefits."

National objects to the fact that parties making submissions to the select committee had to do so without knowing what the Government's preferred policy for implementing a commitment to Kyoto would contain.

The national interest analysis put before Parliament to support ratification was also bereft of policy detail.

Instead, it was confined to arguing that climate change is a long-term risk to New Zealand and that the protocol is at last a step towards an international regime to combat it.

It also says that New Zealand would be in a net credit position in the first five years of the regime, because of forest sink credits, so that participation would be positive for gross national income.

National will try to get the full House to require that the analysis be done again because of the policy details that were issued late last month.

Herlihy said that, by exempting large sectors of the economy, the policy meant New Zealand was unlikely to reduce its gross emissions to anything like 1990 levels, its target under Kyoto.

Although retaining the forest sink credits would enable New Zealand to cover the difference for the first commitment period, 2008 to 2012, they were a one-off asset and New Zealand would be exposed to considerable risk in the second period.

The committee's majority report noted that about two-thirds of the submissions it received opposed ratification at this stage.

Major concerns were that exporters' competitiveness would be eroded, or that New Zealand would find it harder to attract foreign investment.

The majority rejected the notion that New Zealand should reserve its position until there were binding commitments from developing countries to join Kyoto.

But it said ratifying the protocol soon would impose commitments on New Zealand only for the first period, not for any subsequent period.

"We support early ratification because it will give New Zealand greater moral weight in the debates about what should succeed it."

nzherald.co.nz/climate

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