In Auckland, no open homes can be held, no auctions staged at properties, no appraisals done in person at a home considered for listing, no listings secured on-site and real estate agency offices are shut.
If this all results in fewer listings, that would mean a further tightening of supply, which could lead to renewed upwards price pressure as pent-up demand competes for limited listings, Goodall forecasts.
But that wouldn't be likely to last long. Even if that burst eventuated, it was likely to be short-lived.
"Apart from the prospect of rising mortgage rates and the impact of tighter credit policies, it's important to factor in the weight of worsening housing affordability.
"However, as property values rise faster than incomes, the cost of purchasing a home will simply become out of reach for a growing number of would-be buyers, especially as increasing interest rates start to impact the amount of money people can borrow," he said.
The comments come as real estate listing site OneRoof.co.nz released its new house price figures which showed the average house value in New Zealand was close to hitting $1 million in the three months to the end of August.
OneRoof's new index, developed by its data partner Valocity, shows there is still heat in the market despite recent interventions aimed at slowing growth. Property values across the country grew 5 per cent in the three months to the end of August, pushing the national average property value to $983,000.
CoreLogic's Goodall believed it was too soon to see any immediate impact on prices from the lockdown.
"However, we do have the last lockdown and subsequent price boom to compare to. The factors leading to that boom were many, and they're not all present this time around. While the reaction from the Government has so far been supportive, it is unlikely to be stimulatory," he said.
Last month, the Herald reported how alert level 4 was weighing on activity across New Zealand's $1.5 trillion housing market. Around 1600 weekly sales usually occurring at this time of the year are worth about $1.6b.
Exactly how much that has reduced won't be known until official data emerges in the next fortnight.
In the first week of August nationally, excluding Auckland, agents sold 1182 properties worth around $730m, Real Estate Institute data showed. In the last week of July, Auckland agents made 623 sales worth $870m. In the first week of August last year, Auckland agents made 612 sales for $630m.
Christchurch agent Vanessa Golightly of Ray White Papanui expected activity to about halve during alert level 4 but economist Tony Alexander warned to also prepare for a post-lockdown surge of frustrated buyers, with the alert level causing a further property listing drought.
Real Estate Institute data shows more than 1600 residences would usually have been sold in a week around mid to late August throughout New Zealand.
So three weeks of alert level 4 in New Zealand could affect nearly 5000 sales, worth a possible $4.8b.
Goodall is warning we won't know exactly how the market was affected by the lockdowns of August and September until we get that data.
Prices are already not growing as much as they were in many parts of New Zealand.
CoreLogic today showed house prices are not growing as much as they had been. Its latest house price index showed NZ values rose 1.6 per cent in August, down on July's 1.8 per cent and April's 3.1 per cent rise.
Rotorua values fell 2.8 per cent for the first time in more than two years.
Queenstown values, which had been growing at 7.1 per cent, only grew by 3.4 per cent in August.
Whanganui values, up 8.3 per cent in July, fell back to 4.4 per cent last month. Gisborne's quarterly growth rate dropped below 2 per cent for the first time in a year.
Auckland did the reverse, its values rising month on month, from July's 5 per cent to August's 5.7 per cent.
Real Estate Institute data has shown major house price growth lately.
Median prices for residential property across New Zealand increased by 25.2 per cent from $659,500 last July 2020 to a record $826,000 in July 2021.
Auckland hit a record median price in July, up 28 per cent from $918,000 last July to $1,175,000 in July, 2021.
This growth was reflected throughout the region with six out of seven districts reaching record median prices: North Shore City ($1,375,000), Rodney District ($1,240,000), Waitakere City ($1,100,000), Manukau City ($1,075,000), Papakura District ($913,000) and Franklin District ($885,000), REINZ said.
Jen Baird, the chief executive, said house prices had continued to rise in every region. "The last two months have shown early indications that the rate of growth is starting to ease, however, it is too early to say whether this is the usual winter easing we would normally see or if the Government's intervention in the market and signalled changes to the OCR are starting to take effect.
"The strength of the market has again been reflected in the REINZ House Price Index, which reached a new high on the index nationally. Every region across New Zealand reached a record level in July, indicating the underlying value of property is holding strong and will likely do so for a few months yet," Baird said.
Barfoot & Thompson is this week due to release its housing data followed by REINZ around mid-month.
