NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business

Covid 19 Delta: Eric Crampton - Vaccine certificates only a start as we eye new normal

By Dr Eric Crampton
NZ Herald·
5 Oct, 2021 04:00 PM6 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern answers questions following the announcement of a vaccine certificate yesterday. Photo / Pool

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern answers questions following the announcement of a vaccine certificate yesterday. Photo / Pool

Opinion

OPINION:

It has been rather a long time coming.

Yesterday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced that summer will bring vaccination passport requirements. Enjoying summer activities, or at least ones involving a lot of other people, will require vaccination.

It is a great start. But it is only a start.

Today, the New Zealand Initiative released a report, The Path to 2022, with a few additional suggestions.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

This month saw the effective end of Covid elimination – at least in Auckland. The Government will continue to actively pursue cases and limit transmission, as it should. But easing restrictions in the face of rising case numbers is no longer elimination.

Ideally, elimination would have ended only after vaccination rates had risen considerably. Epidemiological models tell us that vaccination rates must exceed ninety per cent of the full population to avoid putting severe pressure on the health system, or to avoid onerous restrictions that help slow transmission.

Models can be contentious. But no modelling is needed to see what happens when low vaccination rates combine with few measures to reduce transmission. We need only look abroad.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

On July 1, 2021, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney promised "the best summer ever" to 4.4 million Albertans, lifting most public health restrictions. Unfortunately, vaccination rates were far too low to sustain it – despite Alberta being a very outdoors-oriented place, and despite it being summer.

Just under 72 per cent of Alberta's population now has had at least one dose – similar to New Zealand's 67 per cent. And, as of September 30, 263 Albertans with Covid were in intensive care – 89 per cent of whom are unvaccinated.

Discover more

New Zealand

Auckland restaurant rents outdoor space at $100 for 'private picnics'

05 Oct 03:06 AM
Business Reports

Mood of the Boardroom: Business confidence on the rebound

06 Oct 03:59 PM
Business Reports

'Centralisation will be the enemy of health delivery'

06 Oct 03:59 PM

Alberta's Covid cases, in ICU, roughly match the entirety of New Zealand's ICU capacity. Obviously, their health system is no longer able to function in any normal way, with ordinary treatments for other disorders disrupted for vaccinated and unvaccinated Albertans alike.

New Zealand's vaccination rates need to increase.

Vaccination passports will be part of the solution. Most importantly, they make it possible for venues to operate safely at higher numbers than could otherwise be allowed.

The Prime Minister suggested that the Government is still working through how they could be implemented and where they might be mandated.

But a simpler solution is available.

Currently, venues operating under level 2 face restrictions on numbers, and venues operating under Level 3 face tighter restrictions.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

If it is safe, under level 2, for a hundred people to meet indoors, when many may be unvaccinated, surely it would be safer for a much larger number of people to be accommodated if all were vaccinated. Venues could have the choice to operate without requiring proof of vaccination, but under current alert-level restrictions on numbers and operations, or to face fewer restrictions if they cater only to the vaccinated.

Churches, restaurants, sports stadiums, universities and others could then decide whether to deal with tighter restrictions on numbers but without the hassle of checking vaccination status, or to require vaccination as condition of entry.

Vaccination requirements will work to reduce transmission. They will also encourage higher vaccination rates.

It is a good start.

But it is only a start. Covid is here and is likely to spread outward from Auckland.

And policy is not set to deal with it.

Currently, employers face legal uncertainties in setting vaccination requirements for staff.

On Monday, Mainfreight's Don Braid on RNZ's Checkpoint urged that vaccination be made compulsory for those crossing the Auckland border, because there was no simple way for his company to require it otherwise.

The Government needs to clarify employers' legal position, ensuring that those employers who see vaccination as important for health and safety can require it.

A vaccination certificate is a great start. But it is only a start. Photo / 123RF
A vaccination certificate is a great start. But it is only a start. Photo / 123RF

Schools will soon reopen in Auckland.

Vaccination events at school could help in communities with lower vaccination rates, for children aged 12 and up. Our report also endorses the recommendations of public health experts on improving ventilation in school to reduce transmission.

But the Government should also be prepared to roll out Covid testing at schools.

The University of Illinois's saliva-based PCR test is now in use in half of the K-12 schools in Illinois for weekly testing of staff and students, to prevent school-based outbreaks.

New Zealand's Government has been very reluctant to see saliva-based testing used for surveillance purposes. But when almost a million teachers and students at over 1700 schools in one US state are part of a weekly surveillance testing system, the New Zealand Ministry of Health's position seems more than a little obtuse.

The Government has also been strongly opposed to rapid antigen tests because they are less accurate than PCR tests, and because of the risk that people might take undue assurance from a negative result on a less-reliable test.

But rapid antigen testing could be part of a highly reliable overall testing system incorporating both PCR and rapid tests. If a workplace operating under level 3 restrictions can only arrange staff PCR testing once per week, it should be allowed to complement that testing with daily rapid antigen tests. Catching a lot of cases as they emerge, rather than just waiting for the next scheduled PCR test, would be helpful.

Similarly, rapid tests could be integrated into better systems for workers needing to travel across the Auckland border. A negative recent PCR test is required for those leaving Auckland, but infections might only emerge while drivers are on their routes – as has already happened. Drivers could be supplied with packs of rapid tests in addition to current required tests, so they could test themselves daily while on the road.

But most importantly, Auckland's border system needs to be able to work for those who must deal with it, while reducing the risk of Covid spreading outside of Auckland. That cannot be done without stronger consultation with New Zealand's shipping companies, and peak bodies like the Employers and Manufacturers Association.

Preparing adequately for the summer also means preparing the health system. It is impossible to double the size of the health system in a hurry. But effective treatments available abroad that work in keeping people out of ICU have not yet even been ordered in New Zealand. That must change lest New Zealand be at the back of a new queue.

System failures that led to the Auckland outbreak and the forced end of elimination point to the need for better systems for pandemic management. The Initiative's report recommends the establishment of an Infectious Disease Agency as part of the Government's ongoing reforms to the health system.

New Zealand is unlikely to follow Alberta's terrible example. New Zealand's Government would not hesitate to reimpose restrictions if they prove necessary.

But a bit of preparation could help reduce the risk of broader outbreaks. In doing so, it would reduce not only the misery that outbreaks cause, but also the cost of the restrictions that might otherwise be required.

It would set us on a better path to 2022.

- Dr Eric Crampton is chief economist with The New Zealand Initiative.

Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

Latest from Business

Premium
Media Insider

Court writer: Polkinghorne pitches his own book; TVNZ v Sky in Olympics showdown

20 Jun 01:00 AM
Premium
Property

'Māori are long-term investors' - learning from success and failure working with iwi

20 Jun 12:00 AM
Premium
Business

50 years on the ice: How an Olympic gold medal kickstarted a couple's business

19 Jun 11:00 PM

Audi offers a sporty spin on city driving with the A3 Sportback and S3 Sportback

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Business

Premium
Court writer: Polkinghorne pitches his own book; TVNZ v Sky in Olympics showdown

Court writer: Polkinghorne pitches his own book; TVNZ v Sky in Olympics showdown

20 Jun 01:00 AM

Can Brad Pitt and F1 turbocharge NZ's box office? TVNZ boss opens up on finances.

Premium
'Māori are long-term investors' - learning from success and failure working with iwi

'Māori are long-term investors' - learning from success and failure working with iwi

20 Jun 12:00 AM
Premium
50 years on the ice: How an Olympic gold medal kickstarted a couple's business

50 years on the ice: How an Olympic gold medal kickstarted a couple's business

19 Jun 11:00 PM
Premium
Stock Takes: In play - more firms eyed for takeover as economy remains sluggish

Stock Takes: In play - more firms eyed for takeover as economy remains sluggish

19 Jun 09:00 PM
Gold demand soars amid global turmoil
sponsored

Gold demand soars amid global turmoil

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP