Many New Zealanders have relished having their backyard mostly to themselves. For instance, wilderness areas have been less crowded, the Great Walks more accessible, and freedom campers less in evidence.
This time round, though, it's unlikely to be anything like the heady pre-Covid days of 4 million tourist arrivals annually. Expectations are muted in light of uncertainty over what the tricky virus has in store for us. While the coming ski season will hold some appeal, particularly for Australians, the consensus is that it might be next summer before tourists arrive in meaningful numbers.
Following past setbacks for the tourism industry, like the 9/11 terror attacks and the 2003 Sars outbreak, visitor arrivals returned to normal within a year, but the repercussions from Covid are expected to be felt for considerably longer.
The Tourism Export Council of New Zealand is more upbeat. Based on what its offshore partners are telling them about demand, it reckons that in four years we'll return to the 2019 level of 3.9 million international visitors. Their forecast is based on a suite of assumptions, including an end to pandemic-related restrictions and geo-political factors in source countries.
So what will be different when the tourist tap is turned back on? Initially not much, in all likelihood, despite plenty of fine words in the past two years about transformative change for the sector.
Successive tourism ministers, first Kelvin Davis and now Stuart Nash, have talked a big game, promising a more upskilled workforce and a focus on high-value, high-spending tourists. Their message has been that costs associated with tourism, such as the need to upgrade tired local infrastructure, will be "priced into the visitor experience" — code for big fee hikes.
Bureaucrats are still wrangling with how to make this happen.
A Tourism Futures Taskforce, established in 2020, has made recommendations. Its report and several others, including one from the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (PCE), have been folded into a Tourism Industry Transformation Plan.
A new buzzword has emerged — "regenerative tourism" — the kind of tourism that actually does good, rather than simply less harm. It has become a guiding principle for the country's 26 regional tourism organisations as they go about crafting their own destination marketing plans.
Perhaps the most promising sign of purposeful change is the Milford Opportunities Project. It has produced a master plan that will heavily restrict road access to Milford Sound, require international visitors to pay a fee, prohibit cruise ships from entering the inner Sound, replace the existing hotel with a new eco-concept resort, shut down the fixed-wing airstrip and see only e-buses and e-boats mandated to operate there.
As you'd expect, local tour operators are alarmed, especially those who've recently invested in petrol- or diesel-powered vehicles and craft. Some banded together to oppose the project, but alas, they're doomed to fail. Very soon the iconic location will be a construction zone as the plan is implemented.
"Regenerative tourism" advocates and others will be watching closely. If the Milford metamorphosis comes together as planned, it will likely become a model for other tourist bottlenecks such as Mt Cook, Rotorua, Punakaiki and the Tongariro Crossing. But that could be some years distant.
Another bugbear, freedom camping, is also set for an overhaul. The government intends to introduce and pass legislation this year which will require freedom campers — often under fire for befouling their stopping places — to be in a certified, self-contained vehicle with a fixed toilet when overnighting on land owned by councils. That rule will be in place for next summer and a $1000 fine, a five-fold increase, will be imposed for non-compliance. A host of other changes are on the way too, aimed at engendering greater respect for the environment.
Then there's the issue that nobody likes to talk about.
More overseas tourists mean more jets. And more jets mean greater emissions — emissions the world needs to dramatically slash if international climate change obligations are to be met. Adding an extra 90 transtasman flights over the Easter period, as carriers are planning, won't do much for already degraded ecosystems.
Five years ago, flying international visitors to and from New Zealand was spewing an estimated 3300 kilotonnes of carbon dioxide into the skies, according to a report from the PCE on steps towards sustainable tourism.
In terms of New Zealand's national emissions profile, that's about 4 per cent of gross emissions. That might look meagre alongside agriculture, at 48 per cent, but it's likely to rise as aviation — having had a subdued couple of years — cranks up again.
Last year the PCE advocated a departure tax to reflect the environmental cost of flying from New Zealand, with the revenue supporting the development of low-carbon aviation technologies. Stuart Nash wasn't keen to follow through as there's already a visitor levy in place for arrivals.
Meanwhile, decarbonising air travel remains a work in progress. Low-carbon biofuels are
coming on stream, but supplies remain limited. There is also the prospect, further down the track, of green hydrogen planes and, for shorter journeys, electric aircraft.
But the airlines bringing overseas tourists to New Zealand in coming months will be waiting a while yet to reap the benefits of those nascent technologies.
- Mike Munro is a former chief of staff for Jacinda Ardern and was chief press secretary for Helen Clark.
