Hills alive with satisfied visitors

By NZPA and Brian Fallow

Most overseas visitors in the November year will sing the country's praises when they depart its shores, Tourism New Zealand says.

Statistics New Zealand figures show that there were 2.33 million visitor arrivals in the year to November 30, up 12 per cent, or 257,300, on the previous year.

Visitors arrivals from Australia, China, Japan and the United Kingdom were up.

Tourism NZ chief executive George Hickton said 96 per cent of those who visited in the November year would "go home and recommend a visit to New Zealand to their friends and family".

He described those 2.24 million people as "walking brochures" for the country.

"Word of mouth is the most powerful tool in encouraging our target market to come to New Zealand," Hickton said. "In our most satisfied market, the US, 98 per cent of visitors are going home and recommending New Zealand."

Tourism NZ's satisfaction figures were drawn from an online survey that departing visitors were asked to fill in.

Meanwhile, Statistics NZ figures show the number of short-term visitors arriving in November was up 4 per cent at 220,600, from the same month last year.

The number of short-term visitors in November 2003 was 211,700. Most of the increase was in more arrivals from Australia, China and Japan.

However, visitors were spending less time in-country, with visitors in November staying 20 days, two less than in the same month in 2003.

On the flipside, 148,500 New Zealand residents departed on short-term overseas trips in November, up 15,800 on the same month last year.

More New Zealanders were travelling to Australia, Fiji and China.

In the 12 months ended November, 1.7 million New Zealand residents departed on short-term overseas trips, up 26 per cent from the previous same year's 1.35 million.

However, the net inflow of migrants has continued to dwindle.

Statistics NZ reported that adjusted for seasonal effects arrivals of permanent and long-term migrants exceeded departures by 630 in November, the lowest number since May 2001.

Net immigration has been on a declining trend for the past 18 months reflecting falling arrivals, especially from China, and an increasing number of New Zealand residents leaving for at least a year.

Deutsche Bank chief economist Ulf Schoefisch said smoothing through the monthly volatility the net inflow of 2300 during the three months ended November 30 was 24.6 per cent down on the previous three months and 60 per cent down on the same period last year.

In the year ended November, the net inflow of migrants was 17,300.

"Similar to the Reserve Bank's assumption for the medium to long-term trend we forecast the net inflow of migrants to settle at around 10,000 a year," Schoefisch said.

"Taken together with natural population growth, that would imply an annual rate of increase in the population of about 1 per cent, down from around 1.8 per cent in 2002/03."

The gradual downward trend in population growth had contributed to the slowdown underlying consumer spending evident since the second quarter.

Bank of New Zealand economist Craig Ebert said that if November's figure was maintained for a whole year the net gain would be only about 7500. "The underlying trends highlight the risk of net immigration drying up altogether in the coming year."