Stock Takes: Vista eyes move into NZX 50

CEO Murray Holdaway says Vista's market capitalisation is more than $400 million.

Cinema management software provider Vista Group is eyeing an entry to the S&P/NZX 50 - a move that would nicely cap off the company's stellar run since listing in August last year.

Speaking at the Infinz finance industry conference in Auckland on Wednesday, chief executive Murray Holdaway noted that the firm's market capitalisation of over $400 million was big enough to enter the index.

However, a lack of liquidity in Vista's tightly-held share register could stand in the way of its entry, he said.

The Auckland-based company is 51 per cent owned by senior management, while institutions have steadily increased their holdings of the stock - which had gained 118 per cent on its $2.35 listing price as of yesterday - since the float.

Westpac and related entities, Devon Funds Management, Fidelity Worldwide Investment and Harbour Asset Management now hold more than 25 per cent of shares in the company.

Other institutional investors also hold the stock, leaving retail investors with about 8 per cent of the company, according to Holdaway.

We'll probably take some advice from Macquarie [which managed the IPO] in the New Year once we see what our financial results are like.

He said Vista wanted to increase its base of mum and dad shareholders, which could aid liquidity. But if institutions aren't keen on selling, the only other option would be for management to reduce their shareholdings.

Escrow restrictions on shares held by Vista management, put in place at the initial public offering, expire in March.

Holdaway told Stock Takes that no decisions had been made, but senior staff would be "bound to sell" some of their holdings after the restrictions come off.
"We'll probably take some advice from Macquarie [which managed the IPO] in the New Year once we see what our financial results are like."

Vista shares closed unchanged last night at $5.12.

Fonterra split?

Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce managed to sidestep an awkward question about Fonterra at the Infinz event.

In a Q&A session following his address, he was asked to give the Government's position on splitting the value-added and commodity producing segments of the dairy giant into two separate firms.

A previous proposal to split Fonterra's operational assets from the co-operative, and list them on the sharemarket, was dropped in 2008.

Quite rightly, Joyce said splitting the brands and commodity businesses was a matter for Fonterra shareholders, rather than the Government.

Units in the Fonterra Shareholders' Fund closed down 8c yesterday at $5.40.

Budget airline?

Air New Zealand shares have had a strong run in recent weeks, but an analyst reckons they could still be a bit of a steal.

At yesterday's opening price of $2.775, the airline's shares were trading at 5.7 times earnings anticipated for the 2016 financial year, according to Bloomberg data.
That's a pretty modest multiple compared with the S&P/NZX 50, which is trading at about 17 times earnings.

"Air New Zealand's exceptionally cheap on that basis," said Craigs Investment Partners head of private wealth research Mark Lister. "It should be cheaper than the market because it's a high-risk sector, but it's still probably cheaper than it deserves."

He said the airline's gross dividend yield of over 10 per cent was also attractive.
At its annual meeting last week, the company revealed a big upgrade to its first-half expectations, saying it expected pre-tax profit to exceed $400 million. Following the meeting, Craigs lifted its 12-month target price on the stock from $3.10 to $3.40.
The shares closed up 5c at $2.825 last night.

Underplayed?

Another Craigs analyst reckons Air New Zealand could be underplaying its first-half guidance.

The airline's bottom line is being bolstered by factors such as strong in-bound tourism, which is allowing capacity increases to be filled, and low fuel costs.

In a research note, Craigs analyst Chris Byrne said Air New Zealand had consistently beaten guidance over the past three years.

It could therefore be assumed that the firm was anticipating profit before tax of at least $440 million, he said.

The airline reported a record full-year result in August, with net profit rising 24 per cent to $327 million.

Mum opts out

CBL Corporation got a solid turnout at its sharemarket listing ceremony on Tuesday.

But one person who was not in attendance was managing director Peter Harris' 82-year-old mother, who turned down her invitation.

"She said that at 82 she's not great at receptions and small talk and that there are some things at her age that you just need to miss," Harris said. "She did go on to say that she would have come if we were listing on Wall Street."

CBL shares made a strong debut, closing at $1.77, a 14.2 per cent premium to the listing price, on Tuesday. They finished down 1c yesterday at $1.79.

After the listing, Harris said it was an "attractive offer" at the start of this year from a private equity firm, which he wouldn't name, that got the ball rolling on the IPO.

"As a matter of good governance the board wanted to see what the alternatives were," he said. "This [the IPO] was what we chose."