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Home / Business / Companies

Stock Takes: Trepidation as NZ reporting season approaches

Jamie Gray
By Jamie Gray
Business Reporter·NZ Herald·
13 Jul, 2017 06:00 PM4 mins to read

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It's almost reporting season for the big guns, including Air New Zealand and Auckland Airport. Photo / Grant Bradley

It's almost reporting season for the big guns, including Air New Zealand and Auckland Airport. Photo / Grant Bradley

Sharemarket investors are preparing for a month of corporate kiss-and-tell and for some, the experience will be less than satisfactory.

Most of the market's big guns have June balance dates, and will report their annual results in August.

They include most of the power generator-retailers, which form the backbone of the market.

Then there are Auckland International Airport, Air New Zealand, SkyCity Entertainment and Tourism Holdings - all companies at the sharp end of the tourism boom.

Some companies have already telegraphed what their results are going to look like.

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Fletcher building

One of the market's biggest stocks, Fletcher Building, will be closely watched this reporting season.

The company said in March that it expected operating earnings before interest, tax and significant items (ebit) to be between $610m to $650m for the year, compared with a previous ebit guidance range of $720m to $760m.

Fletcher Building said the revised guidance is due to the identification of additional estimated losses and downside risk in the company's buildings and interiors business unit of the construction division.

In the previous year, Fletcher Building's ebit came to $719m.

"Following the big hiccups earlier in the year, markets are rightly nervous about whether there is any further bad news to come," said Craigs Investment Partners' head of private wealth research, Mark Lister.

"If there is no further negative news to come, the stock could stage a bit of a relief rally after the result," he said.

The share price dropped on the earnings downgrade but has since stabilised. It closed yesterday at $7.78, which is 4.85 per cent above the recent low of $7.42 from early June.

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However, it is still well below where it was back in November last year, when it got as high as $10.98.

Positive upgrades

But the market has not been without its positive upgrades.

Tourism Holdings has upgraded its year-end forecast to a net profit of $29.5m. The company's share price closed down 2c yesterday at $4.27.

And alternative dairy company A2 Milk expects its group revenue to hit $545m, up $20m on the previous update.

The stock has been a standout performer and has a devout fan club, particularly in Australia, where it is also listed.

A2's shares last traded at $3.98, and have rallied by 113.3 per cent over the last 12 months.

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Flying high

Air New Zealand is not the only airline enjoying a big lift in its share price although the national carrier continues to outperform its rivals this year.

The global average share price rise from the start of the year to the end of June was more than 20 per cent, according to data released by the International Air Transport Association (Iata).

For the same period Air New Zealand's share price increased by 38 per cent to $3.26.
Over a 12-month period to the end of June, Air New Zealand's shares have performed with the global average.

Boosted by continued low oil prices, airline share prices around the world rose 44 per cent. Air New Zealand's shares rose by 43 per cent in the same period.

Its shares yesterday closed at $3.515.

Iata analysts say the recent gains in airline share prices indicate that investors are continuing to look through the impact that squeezed profit margins have had on airline financial performance in the first quarter of 2017, and are focusing on signs that the upward pressure on the breakeven load factor is easing.

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The resilience of United States crude oil supply has continued to put downward pressure on oil prices.

Brent crude oil prices fell back below US$50 a barrel during June, and are currently broadly unchanged from levels seen a year ago.

Although passenger yields remain about 4.5 per cent lower in year-on-year terms, the latest monthly data add to signs that the downward trend in yields has bottomed out.

The month of June marked the low point for airline share prices in 2016, as investors reacted to Brexit and concerns about unit revenues.

The biggest turnarounds have been seen in European and North American airline shares, both up about 60 per cent year-on-year.

Iata says overall, premium traffic accounted for 27 per cent of total passenger revenues in the first four months of 2017 - up from 26.5 a year ago - and reflecting the importance of the upstairs or pointy end of the plane where only about 5 per cent of passengers get to fly.

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